The National Association of Business Economists has joined the Federal Reserve and Business Roundtable in downgrading its outlook for U.S. growth this year and next.
The 55 business economists who contribute to the NABE outlook survey are now forecasting GDP growth, adjusted for inflation, of 2.4% this year, down from 2.7% previously, and 2% growth next year.
“NABE Outlook Survey panelists believe the U.S. economy has reached an inflection point,” said NABE President Kevin Swift, chief economist of the American Chemistry Council, in a statement.
Three-quarters of respondents see more downside risks, compared with 6% who see more upside, and a majority blame trade policy and slower global growth for the downside tilt.
Despite the more pessimistic outlook, NABE economists give low odds for a recession this year — around 20% — and just 35% odds for a recession in 2020.