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January 01, 2019 at 08:32 PM
Conventional wisdom says when interest rates go north, real estate goes south. And that may be the case for 2019, but here’s the rub: The recent stock market correction and worries of a potential recession means diversification into other asset classes, even real estate investment trusts, is a must. A review of 2019 forecasts in the real estate arena shows a push for specific purchases, although caution is advised.
REITs in general are not getting much love for 2019, but real estate is. “Real estate fundamentals are expected to remain solid in 2019, despite the market’s late cycle, rising interest rates and structural change disrupting the office and retail sectors,” Nuveen says in its forecast for the year. ”Positive global growth forecasts and an overall balance of supply and demand continue to support net operating income and property values. Commercial real estate continues to attract capital, with stable income returns generally exceeding those available in fixed income. However, little or no capital appreciation can be expected and putting new capital to work remains challenging.”
Sector-wise, Nuveen sees the best opportunities in data centers and manufactured housing. Further, the firm states that residential apartments globally will continue to benefit from strong demand as “middle-income families and millennials [are] priced out of homeownership. Global real estate debt’s stable income returns and lower volatility have offered risk protection for real estate equity portfolios.”
LaSalle Investment Management recognizes the uptick of inflation and “late-cycle anxiety that have permeated the North American economy,” but states that “core values should demonstrate resilience.”
That said, LaSalle’s Bill Maher, head of research and strategy for North America, warns that “late-cycle investing requires higher degrees of both caution and conviction to keep a real estate portfolio performing at a high level.”
LaSalle also cautions that “new supply poses a potential cyclical risk,” especially if there is a macroeconomic slowdown. They note that the Opportunity Zone program established in the 2017 tax overhaul may lead to a “flood of new supply that impacts overall market fundamentals.”
