One of the biggest questions for investors now is how much expected corporate tax cuts are already priced into the market. Both the S&P 500 index and Dow Jones industrial average have gained more than 20% over the past year and are trading near record highs, which have been set multiple times this year.
Many strategists attribute a good part of those gains to expectations for tax cuts, especially corporate tax cuts. Is there room for more gains once those cuts become official?
Congress is expected to pass a tax bill within the coming weeks, slashing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%, give or take a few percentage points. That’s a tax cut of almost 50%, though many U.S. companies don’t pay the current top rate. The effective corporate tax rate overall ranges from 22% to 28%, according to several U.S. Treasury reports.
“Tax reform will play a significant role in equity markets but changes to the economic forecast will not be as big,” says Omar Aguilar, chief investment officer, equities, at Charles Schwab Investment Management. “Financials and small-caps will benefit the most from the tax bill.”
Financial companies and small-cap companies are thought to be big beneficiaries of tax cuts because many tend to pay higher effective corporate tax rates than other companies, and small-caps tend to have greater exposure to domestic markets than do large-cap multinationals.
Much of the impact of tax cuts on stock prices will depend on whether a company will actually be paying lower taxes and then what it does with the extra money, primarily how much is distributed to shareholders.
Using the extra funds to buy back stocks, for example, would benefit stock prices more than investing in equipment, which positions companies for longer-term benefits.