Going into the Labor Day weekend, political analyst Greg Valliere said that he’s “unwilling” to call who’ll win the presidential election as “there are too many wildcards.”
On a Friday morning webcast, Greg Valliere, chief investment strategist for Horizon Investments, said the election polls released the same day by Real Clear Politics (the only poll he watches) show that the chances that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton will win “in a landslide has slipped dramatically.”
While Clinton was up seven to eight points over Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, that lead has slipped to 4.5 points.
Why the narrowing? “It’s not necessarily that Trump is wildly popular, but a growing antipathy for Clinton,” Valliere said.
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Noting the importance of the Electoral College, Trump will need “to expand his support via his core,” Valliere said, but “the Electoral College is the big one” in terms of clinching the presidency.
Clinton is favored to get 270 votes, he said, while for Trump, he “could win Ohio, Florida and North Carolina and still lose if he doesn’t pick up more” states. “If he closes [a win] in Pennsylvania and Michigan, we will have a tight finish.”
Trump is also gaining favor in the polls because “I think he’s now shown signs he’s willing to go outside the box,” with his visits to flood-ravaged Louisiana and to meet with Mexican president Enrique Pena Nieto — trips Clinton hasn’t taken.
On the congressional front, Valliere said he sees “beginnings of serious dialogue on tax reform” as well as infrastructure issues in the new Congress.