“The analysis — which is a simulation based on historical patterns of income volatility among all households eligible for ACA premium subsidies — estimates that the average repayment amount would be $794, and the average refund would be $773,” the foundation said in a release.
The Treasury department said it expects between 4.5 million and 7.5 million households “will need to reconcile PPACA advance premium tax credits when they file 2014 taxes,” Kaiser said.
Among other outputs of the research:
Households with an original income between 100 and 200 percent of the poverty level would have the lowest average repayment ($667) and refund ($412) amounts. Recently-released federal data shows that about two-thirds of people who sign up for insurance through Healthcare.gov and report their income have a household income up to 200 percent of the poverty level or $22,980 for an individual in 2013.
Households with an original income between 300 and 400 percent of the poverty level ($34,470 to $45,960 for an individual) would have the highest average repayment ($1,380) and refund ($1,601) amounts.
A relatively small share of households had final incomes greater than or equal to 400 percent of the poverty level ($45,960 for an individual). These households would owe the highest amounts because they would be required to repay the entire advance credit without a cap on the repayment. Repayment estimates for these households ranged from an average of $2,306 to $3,837, depending on the original income.