Close Close
Popular Financial Topics Discover relevant content from across the suite of ALM legal publications From the Industry More content from ThinkAdvisor and select sponsors Investment Advisor Issue Gallery Read digital editions of Investment Advisor Magazine Tax Facts Get clear, current, and reliable answers to pressing tax questions
Luminaries Awards
ThinkAdvisor

Portfolio > Economy & Markets > Economic Trends

‘Depressed’ Stiglitz: Optimistic Scenario Is Japanese-Style Malaise

X
Your article was successfully shared with the contacts you provided.

According to Nobel Prize-winning Prof. Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University, an unwillingness to admit just how bad things were and an economic stimulus package that was inadequate got the U.S. into its present state, and the Fed can’t do anything more to help. For that matter, getting any effective program through the current Congress is not likely.

On Breakout on Wednesday, Stiglitz spoke about the unwillingness of the Obama administration to acknowledge how severe the economic situation was. The stimulus package put in place was “too small, too short, and not as well designed as it could have been.” It also contained too many tax cuts, he said, while not offering “enough other things that would lead to more economic growth.”

While the stimulus did work—according to Stiglitz, without it unemployment would have peaked at 12-13%, while with it it peaked at 10%, it was not enough, and another stimulus is necessary now. “We have to be more careful about designing it, but we need another round,” he said.

The failed economic policy, he added, played an important role in creating the crisis – the Fed “really did a terrible job.” And with interest rates already at an effective negative rate, thanks to inflation, monetary stimulus is not what is needed to get the country out of its hole.

If economics and policy could be separated, it would be easy, said Stiglitz, to design a stimulus that would promote growth in the short run and lead to more in the long run. However, professing a “very depressed state of mind” over the present state of the economy, Stiglitz said, “We aren’t going to get anything that’s going to make a significant difference through this Congress.”

QE2 did not do much, although he said it contributed to turmoil abroad—but it failed to stimulate lending. More market turmoil is “not exactly what we need right now,” he added, pointing out that some debt restructuring could help, but added that the country’s hands are tied because of politics.

He cited his “optimistic scenario” as a “Japanese-style malaise,” with a growth rate of 1%, possibly 2%, with perhaps an occasional quarter of 3%—but not fast enough to “make a dent in the job deficit for the 25 million Americans who want a full-time job and can’t get one.” Unemployment, he predicted, would probably be part of the economic situation for years to come.


NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.