Economist and Strategist Both Say 'Double-Dip' Recession Not Likely

“We do not expect a double-dip recession,” according to Bank of New York Chief Economist, Richard B. Hoey in his latest “Economic Update,” released Monday.

Wilmington Trust Investment Management CIO Rex Macey also says he believes that “a ‘double-dip’ is unlikely,” in his latest edition of “Market Notes,” released Friday.

Macey says in his “notes” that “it’s time for investors to consider being less defensive–bonds aren’t as safe as they used to be,” and that “long-term investors” may find stocks to be “a better value than taxable bonds.” He pegs “real” production in the U.S. for the first half of the year at “3%,” and notes that “output…prices…employment…and real estate prices are up.” He notes that bonds, while less volatile than equities, may not outpace inflation at the current 10-year rates of return, and with the risk that inflation may erode bond returns, dividend-paying stocks and certain sectors should be considered now.

Uncertainty over taxes and economic growth are still a concern, Macey adds, as lawmakers debate with the administration over which direction taxes will take–to cut, or not to cut–and growth–to stimulate or not to stimulate the economy.