Quincy Krosby is the chief investment strategist at The Hartford. In that position, she speaks regularly to the brokerage community, to investment advisors, and to institutional investors about macroeconomic and geopolitical trends and how they impact the capital markets.
Krosby also helps advisors interpret economic trends and market direction for their clients. Prior to coming to Wall Street, Krosby earned her stripes inside the Beltway: She was a United States government diplomat, serving both in Washington and in several U.S. embassies abroad. Krosby spoke with Staff Editor Ryan G. Murphy in early May.
Heading into the summer months, what is the overall state of the economy?
I think we might just start to see signs of slowing down. I think that we’ll see the housing market display increasing signs of a slowdown. We’ll start to see indications that GDP is coming down from its robust levels, and I think we’ll start to hear from companies that their earnings are starting to come in a little bit [down]. You’re [also] starting to see strains–although it might be temporary–in the large-cap names.
How will oil play into this?
Oil is interesting; it plays a cameo appearance when things start to heat up. I think we’ll see [oil] going up to new levels, then a pullback, and then going up to new levels, and this will be predicated on a number of factors. One will be strength of the global economy, so demand will pick up. Two, we will be responding to geopolitical jitters. Also, we’re paying very close attention to some of the main suppliers and some of the less than bullish trends in some of the oil-producing nations.
The Medicare and Social Security trust funds have been making headlines as of late. The concern is that the programs may run out of money. What’s a way to remedy that?