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November 09, 2004 at 07:00 PM
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (HedgeWorld.com)–Hedge fund managers in the macro segment maintained a gloomy outlook for U.S. economic performance in three key categories for November, according to the VAN Macro Sentiment Indicators, a monthly survey conducted by Van Hedge Fund Advisors.
One of the factors affecting their view–concern over the U.S. presidential election–was muted Wednesday with the relatively fast resolution of the contest’s outcome, in which President George W. Bush was re-elected.
The bearish view was a continuation of rather pessimistic sentiments for the survey’s indicator categories–the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index, the U.S. dollar and the U.S. Treasury 10-year Note–but a modest uplift from their October forecast, in which the managers were majority bearish in all three categories, the first such result since Van began taking the survey in March.
In their outlook for U.S. equities in November, 42% of managers were bearish, down from 56% for October, while 25% were neutral and 33% were bullish. They were 63% bearish on the dollar, up from 57%, and 46% bearish/33% bullish on the U.S. Treasury 10-year Notes, a bit of an improvement from October, when 52% were bearish on the Treasury notes and 26% were bullish.
Results are based on the responses of a group of 25 to 30 mostly traditional macro fund managers–with some long/short equity managers using a macro overlay strategy–with a combined total of about US$33 billion in assets under management, according to John Van, chief financial officer for the company. The survey was taken during the last week of October.
The major factors shaping the managers’ outlook, Mr. Van noted, were the same as those in the preceding month: concerns about the outcome or aftermath of the U.S. presidential elections, worry about terrorism and the war in Iraq and rising oil prices and doubts about future supply.
