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Robert Falzon. Credit: Prudential

Life Health > Annuities

Prudential Exec Sees Office Prices Falling 15%

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What You Need to Know

  • Prudential made special arrangements for about $400 million of the $2 billion in 2023 maturities.
  • RILA sales jumped.
  • Universal life sales rose.

A top executive at Prudential Financial sees more pain coming for investments in office buildings.

Robert Falzon, the vice chairman of the Newark, New Jersey-based company, predicted Wednesday that the current commercial real estate slump will cause industrywide portfolio valuations to fall another 5% to 10%.

“Office is a subsector that will probably face more like around a 15% decline,” Falzon warned.

But Falzon predicted that Prudential’s office building-related investments will hold up well, because of the company’s focus on working with strong borrowers and high-quality buildings.

What it means: The commercial real estate slump could cause big problems for clients with big investments in that sector who want to sell now.

But it may still offer interesting opportunities for clients who can tolerate risk and like the idea of buying low and selling high.

Prudential’s Q1 earnings: Prudential is a giant life and annuity issuer and the parent of PGIM.

Falzon talked about the commercial real estate market during a conference call the company held to go over first-quarter earnings with securities analysts.

Prudential reported $1.2 billion in net income for the first quarter on $22 billion in revenue, compared with $1.5 billion in net income on $15 billion in revenue for the first quarter of 2023.

After-tax operating income, which excludes the effects of unusual items and changes in the estimated value of Prudential’s investments, risk-management arrangements and benefits promises, increased to $1.1 billion, from $1 billion.

Here’s what happened to sales of some of Prudential’s products between the first quarter of 2023 and the latest quarter:

  • FlexGuard registered index-linked annuities: $1.7 billion (up from $1.1 billion).
  • Fixed annuities: $1.6 billion (up from $547 million).
  • Variable life: $116 million (up from $109 million).

The office buildings: Prudential and other U.S. life and annuity issuers tend to invest the bulk of their assets in bonds issued by companies with high credit ratings.

In an effort to increase earnings, they also invest some assets in real estate and mortgage-backed securities.

At Prudential, commercial mortgage loans and other real-estate-related investments account for $51 billion of the $438 billion of the company’s $438 billion in investments.

In February, when going over results for 2023, Falzon estimated that office prices had fallen by about 30% from peak prices and might fall 10% to 15% more.

“The portfolio remains resilient,” Falzon said. “It’s high quality. It’s broadly diversified, looking at both geography and underlying property types.”

PGIM originates real estate loans directly, and they have made loans where the typical loan value amounts to an average of only about 58% of the properties’ value, Falzon said.

Office-related assets account for about $7 billion of the commercial real estate investments, or 14% of those investments, and the ratio of loan values to property values there is still a respectable 74%, Falzon noted.

Some commercial real estate analysts have suggested that large amounts of office mortgage loans will mature this year, and that, based on building revenue figures and what high interest rates have done to the cost of new mortgage loans, half of the borrowers will have trouble refinancing their mortgages.

Prudential had $2 billion in real estate portfolio maturities in 2023, and the company needed to provide modifications for borrowers that accounted for about $400 million of the maturities, Falzon said.

In the rest of 2024, he said, Prudential has about $2 billion of real estate portfolio maturities in the pipeline.

After that, the portfolio will see an average of about $5.5 billion in maturities per year through 2028.

“We expect that there’ll be episodic issues that we’ll need to deal with in the way of ongoing loan modifications and extensions,” Falzon said. “But overall, we are quite comfortable with the quality and resilience of the portfolio.”

Robert Falzon. Credit: Prudential


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