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Portfolio > Portfolio Construction

How Investors Can Ride ‘A Bull Market of Negativity’

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What You Need to Know

  • Election years are volatile, but results don't lag other years' returns by much.
  • U.S. stocks lean on “stronger balance sheets, sturdy economic fundamentals” and innovative capacity.
  • Money market rates will likely trend lower, opening opportunities for high-dividend-paying equities.

Even as the stock market has soared into 2024, investors face ongoing uncertainty — a contentious U.S. presidential election, a possible recession, a warming planet and the financial effects of wars in the Middle East and Europe.

Given the unknowns, clients may wonder how to position their portfolios to weather whatever electoral, geopolitical and economic turns that the year brings.

Election years tend to bring more stock market volatility, and this one appears to come with heaping doses of voter anger, fatigue and dissatisfaction, Bank of America’s chief investment office noted in a Jan 30 report. The report cited, among other concerns, “the crisis of democracy and the polarizing U.S. election.”

Joseph Quinlan, head of CIO market strategy, and Lauren Sanfilippo, senior investment strategist for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, said Americans are “living through a bull market in negativity” that’s just hitting its stride.

The report from BofA’s CIO team sought to provide advice that financial professionals and clients can use to construct portfolios amid the gloom.

With the presidential election 10 months away and so many unknowns along the way, investors should keep some key points in mind, said Quinlan and Sanfilippo.

Stay ‘Long’ the U.S.

The Bank of America CIO team started by offering reassurance that the United States isn’t necessarily in such troubling straits.

It’s a “false narrative” that “the country is going to hell in a hand-basket. Nothing could be further from the truth,” the report said. “Nearly a quarter century into the 21st century, the U.S. economy remains among the most dynamic and resilient in the world, accounting for roughly 25% of world output last year with just 4.5% of the world’s population.”

“No economy is as productive and wealthy as the U.S. Stay long America. We believe U.S. assets should be core holdings in portfolios.”

The firm prefers U.S. stocks based on the nation’s “stronger balance sheets, sturdy economic fundamentals” and innovative capacity.

“Europe and some emerging markets look attractive based on valuation metrics, but heightened geopolitical risks, (e.g., the threat to global trade, and China’s structural slowdown) keep us guarded in our bias towards developed and emerging market (EM) assets,” the CIO team explained.

Remember: Profits Over Politics

Profits have always mattered more than politics when it comes to the economy and markets, Quinlan and Sanfilippo wrote.

“Sure, politics matter to the markets, but the long-term driver of returns has been with company profits,” they said, adding, “the profits recession is over” after a second-quarter 2023 trough.

“For 2024 — amid the election frenzy — earnings expectations are skewed to the upside, with the consensus expecting 11% earnings growth this year. Fueling the upturn: better-than-expected growth, retreating inflation, the lower cost of capital and a weaker U.S. dollar.”

Focus on the Horizon

While investors frequently associate election years with more market volatility, U.S. stock returns historically resemble those in non-election years, the team noted. The S&P 500 has averaged 7.5% in election years going back nearly a century, compared to 8% in other years, they wrote, citing Bloomberg data.

“Ergo: In times of tumult, stay in the market,” they said.

Clients may be tempted to buy or sell amid economic, market or political turmoil, but the BofA team recommends taking a longer view, looking past the current environment and instead planning for the future.

“The CIO continues to espouse that investors take a long term approach to investing and maintain a disciplined and diversified portfolio while actively rebalancing asset classes. Remember: We’ve been here before — bouts of instability and market sell-offs are not uncommon and have been followed by multiple decades of rising market returns,” the report said.

Between 1945 and 2023, U.S. equities returned an annualized 11.4%, Quinlan and Sanfilippo added.

“Major seminal events have not impeded continued gains in major U.S. indexes,” they wrote.

Emphasize Quality

Investors should prioritize quality in portfolios across all asset classes, the Bank of America CIO team suggested.

“Political uncertainty and the attendant rise in volatility means a premium on quality assets, while junk gets crushed,” the report said. “A strategy of up-in-quality not only serves as a hedge in a climate of ambiguity, but also helps position portfolios for greater upside when the market rebounds (or) recovers.”

Look Beyond 60/40

As it relates to the long-embraced formula of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, Quinlan and Sanfilippo wrote, “Diversification has never been more important, so look beyond the traditional 60/40 portfolio.”

“The broader, the more diversified the construction of a portfolio — incorporating not just stocks and bonds of all stripes — the greater the wherewithal to help smooth out the cyclical ups and downs … of the markets, notably in an election year,” they added.

Find Stable Income

Quinlan and Sanfilippo encouraged investors to “lock in stable income streams” through bonds and dividend-paying stocks.

“A predictable and steady stream of income in a time of uncertainty can give portfolios ballast over the near term,” they said.

Money market rates will likely trend lower this year, so high-dividend-paying equities could prove to be an alternative income source. When it comes to fixed income securities, the team prefers to keep higher-quality positions across credit and sovereign (national government-issued) debt.

Invest in ‘Macro Structural’ Themes

BofA’s CIO team also recommends staying invested in “the key macro structural themes of today — they are bigger and more consequential to portfolio returns than the election cycle.”

Thematic investing is a macroeconomic, forward-looking investment approach “designed to uncover anticipated changes over a long-term horizon,” the report said. The firm’s top themes include longevity and healthcare, hard power or defense/cybersecurity, infrastructure spending on “the grid,” and artificial intelligence applications.

“Thematic investing can be deployed throughout a portfolio of multi-asset classes, providing satellite exposure within the portfolio. The strategy can be notably useful in times of heightened uncertainty,” Quinlan and Sanfilippo wrote.

Summing up their take on 2024: “The bull market in negativity will surely test the patience and tolerance of investors this year. But this too shall pass. Meanwhile, prepare and position portfolios accordingly, and stay the course.”

Image: Adobe Stock


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