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Steve Eisman, managing director of Neuberger Berman Group

Portfolio > Portfolio Construction

‘Big Short’ Investor Shrugs Off Warnings on Deficit, Stocks

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Steve Eisman, best known for his “Big Short” bet against subprime mortgages, said he’s now “more long-oriented” on the U.S. market despite others’ deep concerns about ballooning federal deficits and crowding in stocks.

The Neuberger Berman Group portfolio manager said there’s no real sign that elevated U.S. debt poses a problem for markets or the U.S. government. He’s equally sanguine on equities, despite the parallels that some perceive between today’s market and the dot-com bubble era.

“I’m very blissful,” Eisman said Tuesday at the iConnections Global Alts conference in Miami Beach, referring to his broad market outlook. “I’m a happy-go-lucky kind of guy. It’s unbelievable.”

Stocks Continue to Score Gains | S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 both scored new highs in January

His comments came after Black Swan author Nassim Nicholas Taleb warned earlier in Miami that the world’s biggest economy faces a “death spiral” of swelling debt, adding to recent alarms sounded by former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin earlier this month.

“This argument about the deficit has been going on for forty years,” Eisman said, adding there are few reasons to worry “until I see real signs there’s a problem.” He didn’t reveal his specific investment strategy or holdings.

Eisman’s outlook mirrors the vibe of the broader U.S. market, which has thrived as the economy has shown remarkable resilience.

Meanwhile, some of the gloomiest forecasts of the past year have yet to materialize. Consumer confidence is growing and inflation is coming down, giving the Federal Reserve leeway to cut rates after a series of increases.

An imminent global recession is also less likely with the International Monetary Fund raising its forecast for global growth this year on better-than-expected expansion in the U.S.

U.S. stocks have extended their upward trajectory this year, building on the S&P 500’s 24% gain in 2023. The equity advance has elicited warnings about the lop-sided market gains driven by the tech mega-cap companies.

The share of the top 10 stocks in the MSCI USA Index, including the so-called Magnificent Seven, has climbed to 29.3% as of the end of December, just shy of the 33.2% peak seen in June 2000, according to quantitative strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Eisman expressed no concerns when asked about crowding issues. As for his view on the broader market, he said “it’s a lot more relaxing being more long-oriented,” Eisman said. “The futures are up. A feeling of bliss.”

(Credit: Bloomberg)

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