Close Close
Popular Financial Topics Discover relevant content from across the suite of ALM legal publications From the Industry More content from ThinkAdvisor and select sponsors Investment Advisor Issue Gallery Read digital editions of Investment Advisor Magazine Tax Facts Get clear, current, and reliable answers to pressing tax questions
Luminaries Awards
ThinkAdvisor
A First Republic Bank branch sign in Los Angeles, California

Industry Spotlight > Broker Dealers

First Republic’s Deposits Plunge, Stock Drops

X
Your article was successfully shared with the contacts you provided.

Wall Street analysts covering First Republic Bank have turned the most bearish on the lender since its initial public offering more than a decade ago as a plunge in deposits led to a fresh wave of downgrades and sent shares sliding to a record low.

The stock sank by as much as 48% Tuesday after its earnings report further dented confidence and a Bloomberg News report citing people with knowledge of the matter said the bank is exploring divesting $50 billion to $100 billion of long-dated mortgages and securities.

Deposits plunged 41% in the quarter, prompting analysts from Citigroup Inc., Maxim Group LLC, Compass Point Research & Trading LLC and Janney Montgomery Scott LLC to downgrade their ratings.

“With still a large level of uncertainty in outcomes and expected losses beyond the next year, we recommend investors sell shares as the outlook appears largely unclear,” Citigroup’s Arren Cyganovich wrote as he cut his rating on the stock to sell.

The Tuesday downgrades took the consensus analyst rating for First Republic to the lowest level on record for the stock, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Bloomberg chart showing Analysts Turn Bearish on First Republic | Consensus rating for bank has fallen to its lowest level since its 2010 IPO

The San Francisco-based lender had been shaken last month by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. The Monday evening earnings report added to the company’s woes as the bank said it would cut as much as 25% of its workforce and executives didn’t take questions on the earnings call.

First Republic’s plunge has made it stand out even among hard-hit regional bank stocks. The stock had already tumbled 87% this year through Monday’s close, making it the worst performer in the KBW Bank Index amid the regional bank tumult. 

Other U.S. lenders followed First Republic lower, with the KBW Regional Banking Index underperforming the broader S&P 500

Janney Montgomery Scott analyst Tim Coffey, who also downgraded First Republic to sell after its results, said the company is in need of a major pivot. He cut his target price to $8 from $10.

Compass Point’s David Rochester downgraded to sell from neutral and cut his target to $10 from $15, writing that he sees the stock as “challenged over the near-term, as we see downside potential as more likely and upside potential as much more limited given our expectation for FRC to begin to post quarterly losses starting in 2Q23.”

The average target price for the bank sits at roughly $38, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, but remains far above the stock’s current level of about $9, as some analysts’ targets haven’t refreshed in months.

While Maxim’s Michael Diana also downgraded shares on Tuesday — lowering his rating to hold from buy — he’s less concerned about the bank’s long-term viability.

“We do not believe that First Republic is going to fail, but it could be a long grind back to previous levels of profitability and growth, unless management can devise a shorter-term solution that is not accompanied by large dilution of common shareholders,” Diana wrote in a note to clients.

(Image: Bloomberg)

Copyright 2023 Bloomberg. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.