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The CDC's Thanksgiving Week COVID-19 Death Forecast By State
By
Allison Bell
Slideshow November 19, 2021 at 12:31 PM
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COVID-19 forecasters are predicting that pandemic mortality will be about 0.7% higher during Thanksgiving week than it was last week. The United States could record about 7,244 deaths, and the number of deaths in the typical state could fall 2.7%, according to the most precise figures available in a set of forecasts compiled by a team at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The forecasters typically give estimates of the minimum and maximum number of COVID-19 deaths, but the CDC also reports their "point" predictions, or best guesses. Factors that could throw off the forecasts range from the rise of new variants of the virus that causes COVID-19 to the start of a new flu epidemic. For a look at the five states where the number of pandemic-related deaths could increase the most, on a percentage basis, see the slideshow above. For data for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, see the chart below.
Pictured: This CDC chart shows the recent weekly COVID-19 death counts, which may reflect data reporting delays, along with several forecasters' most specific predictions for the next few weeks, along with shaded areas representing how high and how low each of those forecasters think the numbers might really go. (Image: CDC)
The CDC's State COVID-19 Death Predictions
| Number of Deaths (week ending Nov. 15) | Death Forecast (week ending Nov. 27) | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 120 | 99 | -17.5% |
| Alaska | 39 | 26 | -33.3% |
| Arizona | 244 | 311 | +27.5% |
| Arkansas | 71 | 67 | -5.6% |
| California | 591 | 529 | -10.5% |
| Colorado | 202 | 237 | +17.3% |
| Connecticut | 36 | 22 | -38.9% |
| Delaware | 22 | 21 | -4.5% |
| District of Columbia | 2 | 1 | -50.0% |
| Florida | 19 | 279 | +1368.4% |
| Georgia | 388 | 213 | -45.1% |
| Hawaii | 15 | 18 | +20.0% |
| Idaho | 74 | 72 | -2.7% |
| Illinois | 155 | 171 | +10.3% |
| Indiana | 190 | 232 | +22.1% |
| Iowa | 97 | 104 | +7.2% |
| Kansas | 80 | 126 | +57.5% |
| Kentucky | 218 | 151 | -30.7% |
| Louisiana | 77 | 45 | -41.6% |
| Maine | 28 | 30 | +7.1% |
| Maryland | 76 | 70 | -7.9% |
| Massachusetts | 96 | 86 | -10.4% |
| Michigan | 223 | 386 | +73.1% |
| Minnesota | 134 | 209 | +56.0% |
| Mississippi | 38 | 34 | -10.5% |
| Missouri | 92 | 116 | +26.1% |
| Montana | 67 | 60 | -10.4% |
| Nebraska | 30 | 46 | +53.3% |
| Nevada | 85 | 86 | +1.2% |
| New Hampshire | 31 | 36 | +16.1% |
| New Jersey | 85 | 96 | +12.9% |
| New Mexico | 67 | 86 | +28.4% |
| New York | 245 | 254 | +3.7% |
| North Carolina | 120 | 130 | +8.3% |
| North Dakota | 27 | 27 | 0% |
| Ohio | 576 | 299 | -48.1% |
| Oklahoma | 63 | 91 | +44.4% |
| Oregon | 183 | 111 | -39.3% |
| Pennsylvania | 496 | 462 | -6.9% |
| Rhode Island | 14 | 6 | -57.1% |
| South Carolina | 46 | 87 | +89.1% |
| South Dakota | 22 | 21 | -4.5% |
| Tennessee | 127 | 108 | -15.0% |
| Texas | 867 | 544 | -37.3% |
| Utah | 73 | 74 | +1.4% |
| Vermont | 7 | 17 | +142.9% |
| Virginia | 197 | 157 | -20.3% |
| Washington | 163 | 130 | -20.2% |
| West Virginia | 88 | 81 | -8.0% |
| Wisconsin | 130 | 150 | +15.4% |
| Wyoming | 55 | 37 | -32.7% |
| TOTAL | 7,191 | 7,244 | - |
| MEDIAN | - | - | -2.7% |
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