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5 States Where Deaths of People Ages 45-64 Spiked

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In a typical state, the number of people ages 45 through 64 who died in September 2021 was 42% higher than in September 2019.

The United States is on track to record 61,532 deaths of people ages 45 through 64 for this past September, compared with 39,869 deaths in the 45-64 age group in September 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic began, according to predicted death count data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics.

The Backdrop

Those figures are based on the CDC’s predicted numbers. The 2019 numbers are based on figures that are close to the final numbers. The 2021 numbers may change as states send data updates to the CDC.

The figures include deaths occurring as a result of COVID-19 and all other causes, such as cancer, accidents and heart disease.

The CDC’s predicted numbers show that the total number of U.S. deaths increased 34% between September 2019 and September 2021, to 280,108.

The United States is home to about 328 million people, and about 83 million people ages 45 through 64.

The numbers mean that, if the September mortality rate continued for the whole year, the odds of dying would have increased to 1 in 98 for all Americans, from 1 in 131 before the pandemic started.

For people ages 45 through 64, the death count increase in September translates into an annualized change in odds to 1 chance in dying per 113 people the 45-64 age group, from 1 in 174 before COVID-19 appeared.

The Details

Some states have been faster at reporting 2021 data than others.

At the state level, based on the predicted data now in the CDC weekly death count spreadsheet, the percentage change in deaths in the 45-64 age group between September 2019 and September 2021 ranged from a decrease of 30% in Connecticut up to more than 100% in five states.

When the total number of deaths has increased by more than 100%, that means the number in the latest reporting period is more than twice as high as in the earlier reporting period.

For a chart showing data for all 50 states and some other jurisdictions, see the table below.

Look below that for a chart providing the monthly U.S. death totals for people ages 45-64, from January 2017 through the end of September 2021. Although the numbers are based on the CDC’s predicted data, the totals for August 2021 and September 2021 may be especially incomplete. These figures are based on the CDC’s national totals.

For the five states with percentage changes over 100%, see the slideshow above.

Deaths of People Ages 45-64, in September

These death totals are based on the CDC’s predicted figures. The 2021 numbers could change when states send in more complete reports.
September 2019 Deaths September 2021 Deaths Change in the Number of Deaths
Alabama 849 1,663 +96%
Alaska 83 124 +49%
Arizona 809 1,310 +62%
Arkansas 500 830 +66%
California 3,633 5,163 +42%
Colorado 549 795 +45%
Connecticut 350 245 -30%
Delaware 164 176 +7%
District of Columbia 115 113 -2%
Florida 2,737 5,952 +117%
Georgia 1,398 2,805 +101%
Hawaii 160 231 +44%
Idaho 165 343 +108%
Illinois 1,436 1,880 +31%
Indiana 932 1,278 +37%
Iowa 381 430 +13%
Kansas 353 488 +38%
Kentucky 837 1,272 +52%
Louisiana 752 1,122 +49%
Maine 162 256 +58%
Maryland 692 879 +27%
Massachusetts 688 777 +13%
Michigan 1,373 1,694 +23%
Minnesota 490 539 +10%
Mississippi 545 1,046 +92%
Missouri 946 1,269 +34%
Montana 121 222 +83%
Nebraska 184 270 +47%
Nevada 411 684 +66%
New Hampshire 149 195 +31%
New Jersey 906 1,138 +26%
New Mexico 288 401 +39%
New York 1,097 1,453 +32%
New York City 821 1,015 +24%
North Carolina 1,422 1,964 +38%
North Dakota 99 129 +30%
Ohio 1,737 2,481 +43%
Oklahoma 627 999 +59%
Oregon 474 752 +59%
Pennsylvania 1,660 2,028 +22%
Puerto Rico 364 551 +51%
Rhode Island 128 112 -13%
South Carolina 761 1,265 +66%
South Dakota 121 137 +13%
Tennessee 1,188 2,384 +101%
Texas 3,139 6,323 +101%
Utah 227 375 +65%
Vermont 62 100 +61%
Virginia 944 1,416 +50%
Washington 788 1,120 +42%
West Virginia 334 386 +16%
Wisconsin 640 844 +32%
Wyoming 78 108 +38%
TOTAL 39,869 61,532 -
MEDIAN - - +42%

Monthly U.S. Deaths, People Ages 45-64, January 2017 to September 2021

Number of Deaths
January 2017  44,291
February 2017  43,941
March 2017  43,111
April 2017  52,305
May 2017  40,887
June 2017  40,803
July 2017  50,451
August 2017  39,982
September 2017  50,569
October 2017  40,652
November 2017  41,096
December 2017  54,622
January 2018  47,655
February 2018  44,148
March 2018  53,068
April 2018  41,183
May 2018  40,191
June 2018  50,531
July 2018  40,456
August 2018  40,291
September 2018  49,350
October 2018  40,343
November 2018  40,970
December 2018  52,541
January 2019  43,688
February 2019  43,622
March 2019  53,609
April 2019  41,284
May 2019  40,534
June 2019  50,231
July 2019  40,401
August 2019  48,945
September 2019  39,515
October 2019  39,992
November 2019  51,561
December 2019  42,610
January 2020  44,177
February 2020  54,624
March 2020  44,346
April 2020  54,915
May 2020  60,390
June 2020  46,139
July 2020  49,676
August 2020  61,606
September 2020  46,239
October 2020  57,620
November 2020  50,170
December 2020  57,847
January 2021  76,943
February 2021  54,229
March 2021  48,294
April 2021  47,777
May 2021  59,194
June 2021  45,381
July 2021  57,036
August 2021*  56,851
September 2021*  61,532
* Based on incomplete, predicted figures.

The featured image shows a map reflecting percentage changes in the number of deaths of people ages 45 through 64 between September 2019 and September 2021, based on preliminary CDC data. (Image: Allison Bell/ALM)