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March 19, 2021 at 11:28 AM
What You Need to Know
- The Kansas City, Missouri, and St. Louis numbers look terrible because of a reporting change.
- The national hospitalization and death rate numbers are continuing to improve.
- The national new case numbers are increasing.
The big question about COVID-19 this week is whether this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic in the United States or a period leading up to the start of a big fourth wave.
Most U.S. COVID-19 pandemic intensity numbers have been looking better. About 75 million U.S. residents have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
But tough new variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, have been causing surges of new cases and hospitalizations in Brazil, India and many countries in Europe, including France, Hungary, Italy, Poland, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic, according to the World Health Organization’s COVID-19 Explorer weekly changes tracking table.
Officials in France, who have tried to ease lockdown rules there, announced Thursday that they are imposing tough new restrictions for four weeks because of a surge in new COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations.
The situation in France is different from the situation in the United States: Only about 7% of the people in France have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
But, if a new wave of cases starts in the United States, that could cause headaches for U.S. health insurance, life insurance and disability insurance issuers. Executives from some publicly traded insurers have told securities analysts that they have assumed in projections for 2021 that the country will mostly be done with COVID-19 early in the year.
Pandemic Intensity Data
Here’s what happened to some of the federal government’s national COVID-19 pandemic intensity indicators between the week ending March 5 and the week ending March 12, according to another government COVID-19 tracking report, the latest COVID-19 State Profile Report set.
- New Cases per 100,000 People: 140 (up from 130)
- Percentage of People Tested Who Had COVID-19: 4.1% (down from 4.5%)
- New COVID-19 Hospital Admissions per 100 Beds: 10 (down from 11)
- COVID-19 Deaths per 100,000: 3.1 (down from 3.6)
- Nursing Homes With 1 or More New Resident COVID-19 Deaths: 2% (down from 3%)
The increase in the new case rate could be partly the result of an increase in use of testing, but it could also be the result of an actual increase in the number of new cases.
The Local Picture
Here’s a look at what happened to new COVID-19 cases and COVID-19-related deaths in 110 U.S. metropolitan statistical areas with 500,000 or more residents.
The metropolitan areas here are listed by the names of the biggest or best known cities in those areas.
COVID-19 Case and Death Rates in High-Population U.S. Metropolitan Areas |
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| This chart gives the pandemic figures for the week ending March 12 for metropolitan areas with more than 500,000 residents. | |||||
| The City at the Heart of the Metropolitan Area | Population | Cases per 100,000 People, Last 7 Days | Deaths per 100,000 People, Last 7 Days | Cases, Percentage Change Since Previous Week | Deaths, Percentage Change Since Previous Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron, Ohio | 703,479 | 118 | - | +7% | -100% |
| Albany, New York, | 880,381 | 120 | 1.5 | -12% | +62% |
| Albuquerque, New Mexico | 918,018 | 69 | 1.3 | -20% | -57% |
| Allentown, Pennsylvania | 844,052 | 191 | 2.5 | +12% | -36% |
| Atlanta | 6,020,364 | 106 | 3.1 | -40% | -28% |
| Augusta, Georgia | 608,980 | 73 | 1.6 | -41% | -68% |
| Austin, Texas | 2,227,083 | 81 | 1.8 | -2% | -41% |
| Bakersfield, California | 900,202 | 71 | 22.1 | -28% | +206% |
| Baltimore | 2,800,053 | 117 | 1.8 | +21% | +47% |
| Baton Rouge, Louisiana | 854,884 | 90 | 2.3 | -12% | +25% |
| Birmingham, Alabama | 1,090,435 | 194 | 3.1 | +18% | -21% |
| Boise City, Idaho | 749,202 | 101 | 1.2 | +9% | 0% |
| Boston | 4,873,019 | 143 | 2.9 | +19% | -19% |
| Bridgeport, Connecticut | 943,332 | 189 | 1.1 | +34% | -57% |
| Buffalo, New York | 1,127,983 | 158 | 1.5 | -3% | -23% |
| Fort Myers, Florida | 770,577 | 138 | 1.9 | -5% | -12% |
| Charleston, South Carolina | 802,122 | 123 | 1.7 | -17% | -22% |
| Charlotte, North Carolina | 2,636,883 | 121 | 1.3 | -2% | -42% |
| Chattanooga, Tennessee | 565,194 | 121 | 0.9 | -3% | -50% |
| Chicago | 9,458,539 | 82 | 1.3 | -13% | -25% |
| Cincinnati | 2,221,208 | 99 | 0.5 | -8% | -41% |
| Cleveland | 2,048,449 | 105 | - | 0% | -100% |
| Colorado Springs, Colorado | 745,791 | 125 | 0.3 | -8% | 0% |
| Columbia, South Carolina | 838,433 | 133 | 2.0 | -7% | -43% |
| Columbus, Ohio | 2,122,271 | 94 | - | +1% | -100% |
| Dallas | 7,573,136 | 120 | 4.2 | -18% | -18% |
| Dayton, Ohio | 807,611 | 55 | - | -7% | -100% |
| Daytona Beach, Florida | 668,365 | 123 | 1.3 | -6% | -61% |
| Denver | 2,967,239 | 129 | 1.2 | -2% | +118% |
| Des Moines, Iowa | 699,292 | 133 | 2.4 | +3% | -11% |
| Detroit | 4,319,629 | 174 | 1.1 | +53% | -35% |
| Durham, North Carolina | 644,367 | 96 | 0.8 | +9% | -62% |
| El Paso, Texas | 844,124 | 171 | 7.6 | -8% | +21% |
| Fayetteville, North Carolina | 526,719 | 108 | 1.1 | -20% | -40% |
| Fayetteville, Arkansas | 534,904 | 88 | 4.3 | -6% | +360% |
| Fresno, California | 999,101 | 91 | 4.6 | -9% | +2% |
| Grand Rapids, Michigan | 1,077,370 | 110 | 1.0 | +27% | -8% |
| Greensboro, North Carolina | 771,851 | 112 | 1.7 | -17% | +30% |
| Greenville, South Carolina | 920,477 | 179 | 3.4 | -20% | -34% |
| Harrisburg, Pennsylvania | 577,941 | 124 | 1.2 | -10% | -46% |
| Hartford, Connecticut | 1,204,877 | 121 | 1.7 | +21% | -33% |
| Houston | 7,066,141 | 138 | 3.6 | -27% | -18% |
| Indianapolis | 2,074,537 | 64 | 1.7 | -26% | -10% |
| Jackson, Mississippi | 594,806 | 129 | 1.7 | +52% | -58% |
| Jacksonville, Florida | 1,559,514 | 84 | 2.1 | -13% | -44% |
| Kansas City, Missouri* | 2,157,990 | 827 | 2.2 | +1351% | +4% |
| Knoxville, Tennessee | 869,046 | 121 | 0.9 | -8% | -56% |
| Winter Haven, Florida | 724,777 | 108 | 2.5 | -25% | -50% |
| Lancaster, Pennsylvania | 545,724 | 154 | 1.8 | -1% | -50% |
| Lansing, Michigan | 550,391 | 172 | 1.6 | +59% | +80% |
| Las Vegas | 2,266,715 | 115 | 3.2 | +35% | 0% |
| Lexington, Kentucky | 517,056 | 123 | 2.7 | -12% | -42% |
| Little Rock, Arkansas | 742,384 | 69 | 2.7 | -7% | -31% |
| Long Beach, California | 13,214,799 | 59 | 5.1 | -38% | -26% |
| Louisville, Kentucky | 1,265,108 | 108 | 3.0 | -10% | 0% |
| Madison, Wisconsin | 664,865 | 61 | 0.6 | -20% | -64% |
| McAllen, Texas | 868,707 | 267 | 2.4 | +44% | -57% |
| Memphis, Tennessee | 1,346,045 | 89 | 2.1 | +4% | -20% |
| Miami | 6,166,488 | 226 | 3.7 | -18% | -1% |
| Milwaukee | 1,575,179 | 65 | 0.9 | -11% | -36% |
| Minneapolis | 3,640,043 | 133 | 2.4 | +44% | +93% |
| Modesto, California | 550,660 | 134 | 2.4 | +13% | +30% |
| Nashville, Tennessee | 1,934,317 | 154 | 1.4 | +13% | +8% |
| New Haven, Connecticut | 854,757 | 203 | 3.4 | +7% | +142% |
| New Orleans | 1,270,530 | 67 | 2.0 | -25% | -16% |
| Newark, New Jersey | 19,216,182 | 313 | 4.0 | +4% | -9% |
| Sarasota, Florida | 836,995 | 123 | 1.9 | -17% | -41% |
| Ogden, Utah | 683,864 | 91 | 1.6 | -10% | +10% |
| Oklahoma City | 1,408,950 | 110 | 4.0 | +1% | +460% |
| Omaha, Nebraska | 949,442 | 94 | 0.9 | -19% | -47% |
| Orlando, Florida | 2,608,147 | 129 | 2.0 | -15% | -16% |
| Thousand Oaks, California | 846,006 | 36 | 4.4 | -59% | -14% |
| Melbourne, Florida | 601,942 | 130 | 3.2 | +3% | +6% |
| Pensacola, Florida | 502,629 | 77 | 4.2 | -42% | +50% |
| Philadelphia | 6,102,434 | 156 | 2.2 | +7% | -37% |
| Phoenix | 4,948,203 | 99 | 2.9 | -24% | -37% |
| Pittsburgh | 2,317,600 | 132 | 1.4 | +14% | -47% |
| Portland, Maine | 538,500 | 115 | 0.2 | +12% | -92% |
| Portland, Oregon | 2,492,412 | 49 | 0.6 | +71% | -73% |
| Poughkeepsie, New York | 679,158 | 311 | 1.8 | +9% | -25% |
| Providence, Rhode Island | 1,624,578 | 180 | 4.0 | +1% | -29% |
| Provo-Orem, Utah | 648,252 | 108 | 1.5 | -7% | +25% |
| Raleigh, North Carolina | 1,390,785 | 128 | 1.9 | -1% | -32% |
| Richmond, Virginia | 1,291,900 | 119 | 6.0 | -5% | -61% |
| Riverside, California | 4,650,631 | 45 | 19.2 | -19% | +151% |
| Rochester, New York | 1,069,644 | 96 | 0.7 | -10% | -42% |
| Sacramento, California | 2,363,730 | 54 | 1.8 | -17% | +13% |
| Salt Lake City | 1,232,696 | 107 | 1.5 | -4% | +29% |
| San Antonio | 2,550,960 | 94 | 4.2 | -9% | -39% |
| San Diego | 3,338,330 | 71 | 1.9 | -10% | -29% |
| San Francisco | 4,731,803 | 40 | 2.2 | -16% | +8% |
| San Jose, California | 1,990,660 | 44 | 2.1 | -28% | -9% |
| Scranton, Pennsylvania | 553,885 | 137 | 0.9 | +14% | -77% |
| Seattle | 3,979,845 | 59 | 0.9 | +4% | -24% |
| Spokane, Washington | 568,521 | 81 | 1.6 | +2% | -40% |
| Springfield, Massachusetts | 697,382 | 148 | 4.3 | -7% | -36% |
| St. Louis* | 2,803,228 | 543 | 2.4 | +614% | -51% |
| Stockton, California | 762,148 | 55 | 2.8 | -25% | -67% |
| Syracuse, New York | 648,593 | 79 | 1.2 | -14% | +14% |
| Tampa, Florida | 3,194,831 | 133 | 2.6 | -7% | 0% |
| Toledo, Ohio | 641,816 | 125 | - | -4% | -100% |
| Tucson, Arizona | 1,047,279 | 72 | 3.7 | -24% | -13% |
| Tulsa, Oklahoma | 998,626 | 64 | 3.9 | -29% | +105% |
| Honolulu | 974,563 | 26 | 0.6 | +33% | +50% |
| Norfolk, Virginia | 1,768,901 | 128 | 5.7 | +5% | -46% |
| Washington, D.C. | 6,280,487 | 97 | 1.8 | -1% | -47% |
| Wichita, Kansas | 640,218 | 55 | 1.9 | -25% | -40% |
| Winston-Salem, North Carolina | 676,008 | 90 | 3.1 | -17% | -19% |
| Worcester, Massachusetts | 947,404 | 124 | 2.7 | -5% | +8% |
| Youngstown, Ohio | 536,081 | 75 | 0.4 | -22% | 0% |
| * Missouri numbers were affected by a change in what testing results public health officials there include in the state’s case counts. | |||||
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(Image: NIH)
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