This chart shows the percentage of all deaths caused by COVID-like illnesses continues to be above the epidemic threshold. Here are the 5 states where, on Aug. 22, the ratio of actual deaths to expected deaths was the highest...

5. California: 1.36 to 1.

4. Nevada: 1.37 to 1

2. (tie) Arizona: 1.40 to 1

2. (tie) Florida: 1.40 to 1

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1. Idaho: 1.42 to 1

The summer wave of COVID-19 appears to have caused a sharp increase in total death counts in many states.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) tries to report early death counts quickly, but it takes weeks to get and process complete death data.

The most recent week that appears to have reasonably complete death data is the week ending Aug. 22. In that week, 35 states had total death counts that were at least 10% higher than the expected level.

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The CDC comes up with the expected death count for a week by calculating the average number of deaths in a state, for that week in the year, for the previous three years.

The ratio was at least 1.36 to 1 in five states, meaning that, in at least five states, the total number of deaths was 36% higher than expected average.

The average ratio for the United States was 1.14 to one.

The United States normally averages about 2,7 million deaths per year. If the number of total deaths stayed more than 14% above average for the entire year, due to the direct effects of COVID-19, and the effects of the pandemic on the U.S. economy and U.S. health care system, then it’s possible that the pandemic could lead, directly or indirectly, to about a 400,000 increase in the total number of deaths for the year.

COVID-19 trackers recently reported that they believe the United States has already recorded about 200,000 deaths resulting directly from COVID-19.

The actual numbers could be higher than the current CDC numbers. Some current and former CDC officials have accused other officials of trying to manipulate the CDC’s COVID-19 tracking data, to reduce the apparent severity of the pandemic.

The most serious modern viral epidemic to hit the United States, the 1918 influenza pandemic, caused about 600,000 deaths, in a population of 100 million. That would be the equivalent of a pandemic causing about 2 million deaths in the United States today.

But the other major flu pandemics, such as the 1968 Hong Kong flu pandemic, appear to have to caused fewer than 120,000 deaths in the United States.

The Dynata Data

Dynata, a data firm, powers many website instant survey programs. In place of its regular surveys, it serves some site users a COVID-19 symptom survey.

The company than feeds the survey data into a free, public — but copyrighted — tracking dashboard.

The percentage of Dynata survey participants ages 18 to 24 who said they had a dry cough with loss of the sense of smell or taste was 3% for the two-week period ending Sept. 25, That’s down from 3.1% for the two-week period ending Sept. 18, as many college students with in-person classes started heading to campus.

The number of states where 3.5% or more of the college-age Dynata survey takers said they had COVID-19-like symptoms fell to four, from five for the two-week period ending Sept. 18.

College-age survey taker symptom rates were highest in Arkansas, Nevada, North Dakota and South Dakota. In South Dakota, 22% of the 60 survey respondents in the 18-24 age group said they had a dry cough with loss of the sense of taste or smell. The second worst-hit state, Nevada, had a symptom report rate of 5% for that age group.

Some COVID-19 watchers say the 80th Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, a 10-day event that started Aug. 7 in Sturgis, South Dakota, may have contributed to a sharp increase in the infection rate in South Dakota. The event attracted about 460,000 attendees, according to the South Dakota State News. The IA Institute of Labor Economics has predicted that the rally will eventually cause about 250,000 cases of COVID-19, with the rally infecting some attendees directly; those attendees transmitting the virus that causes the disease to other people; and the people with indirect exposure than transmitting the virus in their own communities.

The ThinkAdvisor Campus COVID-19 Dashboard Tracker

Some colleges and universities report daily COVID-19 test results on dashboard websites.

Campus tracking numbers are of interest because some pandemic trackers say schools could produce a big fall COVID-19 wave.

We created a table using one-day test results, for Sept. 25, from dashboards that reported both test counts and positive results counts.

For the 18 colleges and universities in our table, the total number of tests reported increased to 32,574, from 30,365. The number of samples found to show signs of COVID-19 fell to 289, from 453.

Some schools increased the amount of data reported for Sept. 18 between last week and this week.

The percentage of test samples found to show signs of COVID-19 fell to 0.9% for the Sept. 25 test data, from 1.4% for the Sept. 18 test data. Only a small number of colleges and universities report daily test totals and positive results counts on a web dashboard. The positivity rates at the schools with daily results on a dashboard may be different from the results at the typical college or university. But the results appear to suggest that schools that are tracking COVID-19 carefully might have a shot at getting the spread of the virus that causes the disease under control.

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U.S. University COVID-19 Case Tracker (Results for Sept. 25)

School Tests Positive % Positive, Sept. 25 % Positive, Sept. 18
Arizona, University of      1,051           36 3.4% 6.1%
California at Berkeley, University of      1,244             1 0.1% 0.2%
Colorado, University of         957           77 8.0% 10.2%
George Washington University         276            - 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois, University of    11,090           41 0.4% 0.3%
Lasell University         428            - 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts Institute of Technology      3,168             1 0.0% 0.1%
Miami, University of         581             3 0.5% 0.7%
Michigan Technological University         181             4 2.2% 5.2%
Nebraska-Lincoln, University of           97             9 9.3% 12.6%
Ohio State University      2,798           37 1.3% 2.2%
Rhode Island School of Design         153            - 0.0% 0.0%
Rice University      1,021             2 0.2% 0.2%
State University of New York system      4,466           32 0.7% 0.3%
Tulane University      1,281           22 1.7% 1.2%
Wisconsin, University of      1,658           22 1.3% 4.9%
Yale University      2,124             2 0.1% 0.0%
OVERALL    32,574        289 0.9% 1.4%

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Ratio of All Reported Deaths to Expected Deaths

(as of Aug. 22)
State COVID-19 Deaths Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19 Deaths Total Deaths RATIO of Total Deaths to Expected Deaths
Alabama 195 247 1,210 1.3
Alaska NA NA 86 1.02
Arizona 165 216 1,467 1.4
Arkansas 89 131 723 1.27
California 808 1,058 6,356 1.36
Colorado 18 44 851 1.18
Connecticut NA 10 329 0.6
Delaware NA 12 172 1
District of Columbia 11 16 101 0.92
Florida 928 1,191 5,146 1.4
Georgia 374 452 2,004 1.3
Hawaii 10 21 241 1.16
Idaho 56 62 359 1.42
Illinois 95 194 2,127 1.13
Indiana 91 161 1,289 1.1
Iowa 61 92 594 1.09
Kansas 37 58 504 1.1
Kentucky 66 128 951 1.11
Louisiana 171 192 936 1.12
Maine NA 16 312 1.19
Maryland 59 105 986 1.11
Massachusetts 33 81 1,024 0.98
Michigan 56 148 1,880 1.12
Minnesota 55 93 863 1.06
Mississippi 181 224 770 1.35
Missouri 91 142 1,268 1.09
Montana 10 12 234 1.25
Nebraska 27 43 355 1.14
Nevada 96 125 612 1.37
New Hampshire NA 15 249 1.12
New Jersey 35 81 1,333 0.98
New Mexico 20 32 363 1.16
New York 32 136 1,864 1.05
New York City 20 77 960 0.99
North Carolina 33 40 274 0.16
North Dakota NA 14 87 0.66
Ohio 159 265 2,476 1.12
Oklahoma 63 120 824 1.18
Oregon 22 47 744 1.13
Pennsylvania 95 198 2,575 1.08
Rhode Island 13 20 188 0.97
South Carolina 199 238 1,157 1.35
South Dakota NA 21 151 1.06
Tennessee 128 229 1,631 1.21
Texas 904 1,106 4,743 1.27
Utah 18 36 418 1.18
Vermont 0 NA 117 1.27
Virginia 121 161 1,427 1.16
Washington 50 105 1,180 1.18
West Virginia 25 37 219 0.55
Wisconsin 38 77 1,052 1.12
Wyoming NA NA 95 1.16
United States 5,793 8,351 57,877 1.14

— Read Club Vita Forms COVID-19 Lifespan Impact Research Panelon ThinkAdvisor.

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