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April 07, 2020 at 04:43 PM
Four in five U.S. financial advisors in a new poll expect stocks to fall below the 2,237 points the S&P 500 hit on March 23, down 34% from its peak on Feb. 19, Ned Davis Research reported Tuesday.
The NDR poll was conducted March 26 among some 750 advisors.
More than half of participants said they expected a new low to be reached by May 31, while one in four anticipated the market to bottom at a later date.
Only 19% of advisors believed stocks had hit the low on March 23.
NDR said the advisor community’s pessimism aligned with its own perspective that stocks are likely to see more volatility until they reach their bottom.
“The volatility we’ve seen over the past few weeks will make it into history books, but it’s likely we haven’t seen the end of it,” NDR’s chief U.S. strategist, Ed Clissold, said in a statement. “We’ll remain cautious on U.S. equities until breadth thrusts indicate that the market is recovering.”
Clissold said the bottoming process comprises four stages:
- Oversold
- Rally
- Retest
- Breadth thrust
He noted that the three-day rally following March 23 likely signaled the end to a waterfall decline, meaning that the market had advanced to Stage 2.
The market can now bounce between Stage 2 and Stage 3 several times, until it experiences a successful retest with less total volume, less downside volume, fewer stocks making new lows and fewer stocks below their moving averages.
