If the presidential election were held right now, President Donald Trump would have about a 60% chance of being reelected, based on polling of voters in swing states, according to political scientist Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group.
That’s despite the fact that cable TV news channels keep showing that Trump is losing against all the Democratic candidates in national polls, he told TD Ameritrade’s National LINC 2020 conference in Orlando, Florida, on Friday during a keynote.
And that’s despite the fact that “I actually do feel that Trump is going to lose the popular vote in November,” Bremmer said.
That’s because “it doesn’t matter — it doesn’t mean anything” what the national polls show, he said, adding: “That’s not how we elect people” for U.S. president. It’s the Electoral College that elects people. Just ask Hillary Clinton and Al Gore.
“They should stop that,” he said of the news organizations that dwell on national polling. “They are not educating the American public.”
Noting that Eurasia Group does proprietary polling of 12 swing states “because that’s what clients want to know,” he said: “Right now, Trump is winning in those swing states against moderate candidates — not by much. It’s close. But he’s winning. Right now, if the election were today, you’d say 60/40 Trump’s the next president.”
That’s largely because, although his popularity is low, “the economy is doing well and impeachment has, on balance, helped, not hurt him,” according to Bremmer.
“I have no idea who is going to get the Democratic nomination,” although Joe Biden is still the frontrunner, he said.