DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, who predicted Donald Trump would win the election in 2016, said Tuesday that “Bernie Sanders is most likely to win the Democratic nomination.”
He noted cautiously that there’s “a lot of potential volatility building in 2020, especially due to election uncertainty.”
Speaking during his “Just Markets” webcast for 2020, Gundlach reminded participants that many felt there was “no way Trump could win the Republican nomination in 2016.”
What makes Sanders stronger than some election watchers think? “Bernie is authentic. You might not like his policies, but he doesn’t waver,” the fixed-income specialist explained.
Sanders “is making progress” as tracked by @PredictIt betting odds, he added. The website has Joe Biden at 41 cents and Sanders at 30 cents.
“The vilification of billionaires is a prime theme in the Democratic primary. [Michael] Bloomberg won’t get nomination,” said Gundlach.
“Biden would have a really hard time holding his own in a one-on-one debate with Trump for two hours,” he said.
“I seriously do not believe Joe Biden is going to win the Democratic nomination,” the bond-fund manager explained.
He added that voters are “probably not ready for Mayor Pete. He’s an impressive candidate but too young.” As for Amy Klobuchar, she’s “not gaining much traction.”
But could Sanders win a general election? It “depends on the economy,” Gundlach stated.
The economic consensus for real GDP growth in 2020 is now at 1.8%, he said. (GDP growth was 2.1% in the third quarter of 2019, 2.0% in the second and 3.2% in the first, according to the Commerce Department.)
As for the chance of an economic recession this year, Gundlach’s latest view is that it is 35%.