The Congressional Budget Office projects that budget deficits will remain below 3% of GDP through 2019, but continued growth in spending — particularly for programs like Social Security and Medicare — would outstrip growth in revenues, resulting in larger deficits and increasing debt.
By 2027, CBO said Tuesday, the deficit would reach 5% of GDP — $1.4 trillion. Revenues, if current laws generally remained unchanged, would rise from 17.8% of GDP in 2017 to 18.4% by 2027. They have averaged 17.4% of GDP over the past 50 years.
CBO noted that its projections were completed before President Donald Trump took office on Jan. 20, and do not incorporate any effects of executive orders or other actions taken by his administration.
CBO’s baseline estimate of the 2017 deficit is $559 billion, or 2.9% of GDP — less than the $587 billion deficit posted in 2016.