Top political analysts continue to predict that Hillary Clinton wins the White House on Tuesday.
Clinton should prevail in Tuesday’s presidential election, but the big question is whether or not Donald Trump concedes, said Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, a day before the election. “I don’t think he will,” Friedman said, “and I think the market volatility will reinsert itself.”
If Trump “continues to agitate, hold rallies and tweet” after the election results, the “markets will be really concerned about that,” Friedman said in an interview Monday with ThinkAdvisor. “I’m not sure the consequences of the election end with the election.”
Indeed, Greg Valliere, chief global strategist for Horizon Investments, predicted Monday that Clinton, “propelled by enormous majorities among women and Hispanics,” wins by 2-to-4 points, “with a surprisingly narrow Electoral College victory, perhaps winning as few as 275 votes without Florida or 304 votes with Florida.”
In his outlook on Tuesday’s results, Valliere notes that while there are “lots of paths to 270” electoral college votes for Clinton, there are “few” for Trump.
Analysts at Washington Analysis predict more generous electoral votes for Clinton — 323 electoral votes vs. 215 for Trump, “which would put the results close to the 332 electoral votes that President Obama received in 2012 vs. 206 for Mitt Romney.”
Clinton, Valliere predicted, will not get close to 332 votes, “as Obama did four years ago, and we think it’s possible she won’t win 50% of the popular vote – the final total might be Clinton 49%, Trump 45%, [Gary] Johnson 4%, [and Jill] Stein 2%. Hardly a mandate for a president-elect who will be under an ethical cloud on several issues from the get-go.”