Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says that a strategic buying opportunity may open up in gold should prices drop substantially below $1,250 an ounce, with bullion offering investors a way to protect themselves against risks to global growth and limits to central banks’ effectiveness.
While the decline over the past month has been in line with the bank’s bearish outlook, there could be a case for purchases if the sell-off deepens, according to analysts including Jeffrey Currie and Max Layton. On Friday, bullion dropped to as low as $1,241.51 an ounce before recovering to $1,253.92, on course for the biggest weekly slump in almost two years.
After a stellar first half as the Federal Reserve stood pat on rates and political risk jumped with the U.K.’s Brexit vote, bullion’s rally has started to unravel as the odds of tighter Fed policy by the year-end have increased, buoying the dollar. The metal’s retreat has taken place against a backdrop of investor concern that the world’s leading central banks, including the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, may now be approaching the limits of what monetary policy can do to stoke growth.
“We would view a gold sell-off substantially below $1,250 as a strategic buying opportunity, given substantial downside risks to global growth remain, and given that the market is likely to remain concerned about the ability of monetary policy to respond to any potential shocks to growth,” Currie and Layton wrote in the Oct. 6 report.