Close Close

Portfolio > Alternative Investments

Gold Now in a Long Bull Market, Analysts Say

Your article was successfully shared with the contacts you provided.

Gold is glittering, and that has analysts making a bull call on the precious metal.

“We’re recommending our clients to position for a new and very long bull market for gold,” said Solita Marcelli of JPMorgan Private Bank on CNBC’s “Futures Now” Tuesday.

The precious metal has shot up more than 20% so far this year vs. a 1.2% gain for the S&P 500.

Like DoubleLine Funds CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, Marcelli said a price of $1,400 “is very much in the cards this year.”

With negative interest rate policies in several parts of the world, gold is likely to remain attractive as an alternative currency, she says. Plus, investors are looking for a hedge against the related volatility, making the metal attractive as a continued “safe-haven trade.”

“Central banks may consider diversifying their reserves [as they anticipate] negative rates on existing holdings,” said JPMorgan’s global head of fixed income, currencies and commodities. “Gold is a great portfolio hedge in an environment where the world government bonds are yielding at historically low levels.”

“Gold is looking more and more attractive every single day,” she said. “As a non-yielding asset, it has a minimal storage cost, so when you compare it to negative-yielding assets, it actually has a positive carry.”

Goldman’s Call

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs recently upgraded its gold price forecasts by 10% for 2016, 15% for 2017 and 10% for 2018, in response to economists’ revisions of future interest rate-path expectations.

“Our precious metals coverage now offers on average +2% upside (market cap-weighted) to our revised 12-month price targets,” its analysts stated in a note. “With a combination of higher prices and flat costs, we now believe the miners are well positioned to generate superior market returns as EBITDA margins begin expanding.”

“Since September 2011 when the gold price peaked near $1,900 per ounce, the gold miners have been nothing but defensive: cutting costs, reducing or suspending dividends, divesting assets and terming out debt,” they explained.

“Now, in our view, the situation is very different,” the analysts said. “With the majority of companies having flat-to-declining production profiles we believe it is now time for positive actions. Gold miners should begin to re-scrutinize their stables of organic growth projects and slowly begin to allocate capital in a disciplined manner to ensure the current production levels are at least sustainable.”

— Check out Gundlach: Trump Will Be President, Debt Will Soar on ThinkAdvisor.


© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.