Just because stocks have been choppy, doesn’t mean analysts have changed their bullish opinions. Among Wall Street’s analysts, 18 out of 21 predict a 3% or greater increase for the S&P 500 in 2014.
One of the most bullish forecasts in the group goes to Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs who projects a 16% gain for the S&P 500 this year. At the opposite end of the spectrum, only David Bianco of Deutsche Bank, Barry Bannister of Stifel Nicolaus, and Emad Mostaque of NOAH predicted flat or negative equity performance for the S&P.
Elsewhere, analysts’ confidence level in the global outlook remains bright. Most CFA Institute members (63%) think the global economy will expand in 2014. A paradox is that these very same CFA members were considerably less bullish on stocks at precisely the wrong time.
At the beginning of 2013, just 40% of CFA members were optimistic about the worldwide economy, while even less (34%) were hopeful the year before. Meanwhile, the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) climbed 17.12% in 2012 and added another 22.95% in 2013.
Will overly bullish views, as in previous years, turn out to be a contrarian indicator?