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Bob Doll Turns His 10 Predictions Into Portfolio Picks

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Nuveen Asset Management equity strategist Bob Doll and InCapital rolled out a portfolio on Tuesday that takes the trends Doll sees dominating 2014 and turns them into a unit trust with 25 stock holdings.

The Nuveen 2014 Equity Outlook Portfolio (INNEOX), which has an initial offering price of $10 per unit, will be available through April 9.  The expected termination date of the trust is April 10, 2015.

“My goal was to create a portfolio that we think that will outperform the market in the next 12 months,” said Doll in an interview with ThinkAdvisor. “We hope that with this collection, we get more right than wrong.”

The overarching theme of Doll’s outlook, he says, is “less fear, more confidence,” noting that the economy and corporate spending are doing better than in recent years.

“It’s not a perfect economy, but 3% growth is better than where we’ve been,” he said.

Doll adds that the Nuveen 2014 Equity Outlook Portfolio is designed to take advantage of the following broad trends:

  • The U.S. economy grows 3% as housing starts surpass one million and private employment hits an all-time high
  • 10-year Treasury yields move toward 3.5% as the Federal Reserve completes tapering and holds short-term rate near zero
  • U.S. equities record another good year despite enduring a 10% correction
  • Cyclical stocks outperform defensive stocks
  • Dividends, stock buybacks, capital expenditures and M&A all increase at a double-digit rate
  • U.S. dollar appreciates as U.S. energy and manufacturing trends continue to improve
  • Gold falls for the second year and commodity prices languish
  • Municipal bonds, led by high yield, outperform taxable bond counterparts
  • Active managers outperform index funds
  • Republicans increase their lead in the House but fall short of capturing the Senate

The holdings, which should each represent about 4% of the total portfolio, are found in the nine sectors:

  • Consumer Discretionary: DirecTV (DTV), Macy’s (M), Omicon (OMC) and Viacom (VIAB)
  • Consumer Staples: Altria (MO) and Lorillard (LO)
  • Energy: Apache (APA) and Chesapeake (CHK)
  • Financials: Goldman Sacks (GS)
  • Health Care: AmericsourceBergen (ABC), Cardinal Health (CAH), Humana (HUM), Medtronic (MDT), Pfizer (PFE), UnitedHealth (UNH) and WellPoint (WLP)
  • Industrials: Boeing (BA), Delta (DAL), Northrop Grumman (NOC) and Raytheon (RTN)
  • IT: Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL)
  • Materials: International Paper (IP)
  • Telecommunications: Verizon (VZ)

The unit trust, Doll says, is designed to serve investors as a large-cap U.S. equity portfolio. “I’ve been doing my predictions for 25 years,” he said, “and lot of people really like the output from them.”

Nuveen and InCapital expect that if interest in the 2014 portfolio is robust, the two will partner and launch a 2015 product.

Check out Bob Doll: 10 Economic Predictions for 2014 on ThinkAdvisor.


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