State-based public exchanges have reported enrolling a total of 49,100 consumers in health coverage, or 3 percent of the 2014 target.
Avalere Health offers that estimate based on press releases from and articles about 15 state-based Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act exchanges.
The Avalere chart includes enrollment data, updated as of Nov. 8, from Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Kentucky, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington State and the District of Columbia.
Avalere compared state exchange enrollment numbers with their own 2014 enrollment projections for those states.
Two states – Rhode Island and Vermont –already have enrolled more than 10 percent of the consumers Avalere expected them to get into plans next year. Rhode Island’s reached 11 percent of its 33,000 enrollment target, while Vermont’s hit 12 percent of its 30,000 target.
In terms of total enrollment, New York leads the pack with 13,300. But New York is one of four jurisdictions that have reported enrollment numbers and appear to have enrolled fewer than 3 percent of the total number of people Avalere anticipated. The others are Minnesota, Hawaii and the District of Columbia.
Avalere had to leave enrollment numbers from three large states – California, Oregon and Massachusetts – out of the Nov. 8 enrollment total.
Oregon hasn’t yet launched its enrollment site or reported enrollment numbers.
California and Massachusetts have released application activity data but not enrollment data.
Avalere is predicting all state-based exchanges combined will enroll about 1.4 million people by the end of 2014.
One challenge is that different states have been using different definitions for the term “enrollment.” Some jurisdictions, such as District of Columbia, seem to be using the term to refer to consumers who’ve said they’ll enroll in plans but haven’t yet paid for coverage, but others seem to be including only consumers who’ve chosen plans and paid.
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services refuses to release any enrollment data. HHS officials have said they’ll try to post enrollment data by the end of this week, if they have what they believe to be reliable, confirmed data.
A few states with HHS-run exchanges have tried to come up with enrollment data by polling exchange plan issuers.
In North Dakota, for example, officials said Friday that they believe the three carriers selling plans in their state had enrolled about 30 people as of Nov. 1.
Avalere said it now expects all exchanges to meet 0.7 percent of their first-year enrollment target one month before the deadline for coverage with a Jan. 1 start date.
When the Medicare Part D prescription drug program started, the Part D plans met about 1 percent of their first-year enrollment target a month before their Jan. 1 coverage enrollment deadline, Avalere said.