There are countless real-life examples showing how slow, systematic number-crunching can lead to better decisions than expert intuition. But the opposite approach — relying on gut over fact — works, too, as demonstrated by the chess grandmasters who can identify the winning move with a quick glance at the board or the art expert who can identify a fraud at first sight. These talents come from instinctive hunch, which is only reliable when you have a level of expertise to base it on. If you’re an accomplished investor, don’t hesitate to place your money where your heart tells you to. If you’re a novice, better to give the decision some careful analysis.

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