Political Commentator Says Obama Faces Hurdles to Reelection at NAIFA Meeting

In the all-important Electoral College that decides elections, Fineman estimated a larger lead for the President: 221 of the 270 Electoral College votes required to secure election, as opposed to 191 Electoral College votes for Romney. Fineman added that Obama enjoys a slight edge in the handful of “swing states” that could go to either candidate.

“Obama is currently ahead in 9 of the 10 swing states, so he has a shorter road to hoe,” said Fineman. “The key to election victory for both candidates is their ability to define the nature of the contest.”

Both Obama and Romney, he noted, have run a largely negative campaign, each accusing the other of failings. Romney has repeatedly pointed to the U.S. economy’s anemic growth as a reflection  on the president’s performance. Obama has, among other things, questioned Romney’s skills and decisions as a business leader.  A key factor to be weighed by the large number of swing voters–many of whom, Fineman noted, are former Obama supporters–are their perceptions of the candidates personal attributes. Fineman said that Governor Romney is widely viewed as a “decent guy who has a ‘wonderful family’ and a record as a successful businessman.”

Fineman said that he was also impressed with Romney’s “perseverance” in pursuing the presidency after his failed 2008 campaign, but he doubted Romney’s ability to connect with average voters.

“Romney is not well suited to public speaking and he’s not comfortable [interacting with voters],” said Fineman. “He knows how to run organization and is a first class manager with a first class mind. But he’s not a natural politician.”

Fineman added that Romney also recently “muddied his message” as a critic of Obama Care when he indicated a willingness to retain certain popular aspects of the 2010 health care reform law, such as coverage of individuals with pre-existing conditions and allowing adult children to remain on their parents’ healthcare plans until age 26.

Romney’s use of offshore bank accounts and decision not to publicly disclose more than two federal tax returns have also exposed him to attacks from the Democratic camp for lack of transparency in respect to his personal finances.

Turning to the president, Fineman said that Obama enjoys an “aura of authority” as the incumbent. He can tout certain domestic and foreign policy successes, including the killing of Osama bin Laden and the auto manufacturers’ recovery following the bailout of the industry in the wake of the financial crisis. 

Though the president’s signature legislative initiative, the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, remains controversial, Fineman said it was been well received among a key blog of voters the Democrats are courting this year: Hispanics.

The president’s campaign team, Fineman added, also enjoys a technological advantage over Romney’s, including in such areas as data mining, analytics and target marketing to demographic groups. But Fineman warned that the president remains vulnerable on the economy, an issue of top concern to voters this year.