Leavitt Comes Up with 12 PPACA Scenarios

The health policy watchers on the bracketology team are predicting, for example, that, in a Democratic Gridlock Universe, there would be 0% chance of major changes in Medicare getting enacted, 39% of no Medicare reforms becoming law, and a 60% chance of “some reforms” or “little reforms” occurring.

In a Republican Gridlock Universe, there might be an 89% chance of some Medicare reforms being adopted, but still 0% chance of major reforms taking place, according to the health policy panel.

When Leavitt Partners asked the panel about whether the administration would continue to offer states a high level of flexibility in developing health insurance exchanges, or Web-based insurance supermarkets, in various scenarios, 78% said that outcome was somewhat or very likely in a Democratic Gridlock Universe.

Only 18% of the panel members think it would be very or somewhat likely that the administration would create a viable federal exchange in a Republic Gridlock Universe.

But only 22% of the panelists said they think the exchange program would be eliminated in a Republican Sweep Universe; about 67% of the panelists said they think the exchange program would simply be modified, and 84% of the panelists said they think a Republican administration would continue current Obama administration health care reform efforts even in a Republican Sweep Universe.