CMS Analysts: Health Cost Relief Only Temporary

Health care cost spending growth has slowed in recent years but probably will speed up soon, government experts said Tuesday.

Actuaries and economists in the Office of the Actuary at the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) are predicting that health care spending will increase about 4% for the next couple of years.

Spending could then jump about 7% in 2014, when coverage expansion programs created by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 (PPACA) are supposed to start, the CMS analysts said in a paper published in Health Affairs, a health finance academic journal.

The analysts expect the United States to spend about $8,953 per resident on health care this year, or 18% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).

The net cost of health insurance — the gap between what customers pay for private health insurance and the amount private insurers spend on health care — increased just 4.3% in 2011, to $152 billion. The net cost of health insurance could increase about 6.8% this year, the analysts said.

The amount that private health insurers spent on health care increased just 1.8% in 2011, to $864 billion, while overall spending increased 3.9%. This year, the overall rate of spending growth could rise to 4.2%, with the rate of private health insurance spending growth climbing to 2.8%, the analysts said.

A year ago, the analysts were predicting health insurers would spend about $850 billion on health care in 2011.