The latest Independent Advisor Outlook Study by Charles Schwab found that advisors generally remained optimistic about prospects for the economy and markets over the near term, but the debt ceiling dramatics in Washington this summer dampened their optimism.
Of the 911 advisors (all of whom custody with Schwab) who completed the semiannual SAO survey between July 26 and Aug. 5, 28% said they thought it likely that the country woulhttp://itunes.apple.com/us/app/the-skinny/id402751997?mt=8d enter another recession over the ensuing six months, while 52% thought it unlikely. However, of those RIAs who completed the survey following the July 31 passage of the bill raising the debt ceiling, 32% felt a double-dip recession was likely over the following six months. The same percentage—28%—of the 1,119 advisors surveyed in July 2010 said they thought a double-dip recession was likely in the following six months.
The online study, conducted by Koski Research, found a similar pattern on advisors’ outlook for the overall markets: Only 37% of respondents said they were feeling bullish on the markets for the ensuing six months in the most recent polling, compared to 56% who felt bullish in January 2011.
Those who said they were feeling “bearish” in late July-early August were 22% of respondents, compared to only 10% in January 2011. Of those surveyed before the debt ceiling agreement was reached, 18% said they were bearish; afterward, that percentage rose to 27%. On more specific market measures, 58% said they expected an increase in the S&P 500, down from 77% in January of this year.