While economic data continues to signal a recovery that is “gaining strength,” significantly higher oil prices due to the turmoil in the Middle East “threatens to erase much of those gains,” according to Hartford Investment Management’s March economic outlook.
Higher energy costs will “likely squeeze business margins and household budgets,” according to Hartford Investment, a subsidiary of The Hartford Financial Services Group.
As for the housing sector, Hartford notes that while low mortgage interest rates continue to provide “attractive” financing alternatives, high unemployment—although it’s improving–and a “significant supply overhang” due to excess new home construction, foreclosed homes, and delinquent homes that will likely be foreclosed, will keep home values “depressed for an extended period of time.” Hartford says it also estimates there will be an additional 5% to 10% decline in home prices over the next 12 months.