The sunny view from Scott Wolle’s high-rise office in downtown Atlanta is an apt—if somewhat obvious—metaphor for his view of the retirement fund space as a whole, and Invesco’s place in it. The balanced-risk allocation strategy he’s developed, which is the focal point of the Invesco Balanced-Risk Allocation Fund and the Invesco Balanced-Risk Retirement Funds, is unique in that “no one is running their target date portfolios this way,” he boasts.
He and his seven-member team have been together for 10 years and currently manage approximately $9 billion in assets. Although the retirement fund itself is relatively new, they’ve been executing the balanced-allocation strategy from the beginning.
“The balanced-risk allocation fund is the cornerstone,” Wolle says. “The more distant retirement funds are invested 100% in the balanced-risk allocation fund. As they get closer to the retirement date, we start to dilute the volatility with money market funds.”
When asked how he defines balanced-risk, he begins with the standard “we’re trying to win by not losing,” but thankfully gets more specific by explaining that it’s about understanding possible economic outcomes and ensuring enough risk is in the portfolio that’s associated with those outcomes to reduce the probability of a prolonged period of negative return.
“That doesn’t mean the fund can never have negative returns,” he admits. “It’s really making sure the fund is built in a way that it’s unlikely to have those minus 30% or minus 40% events that we saw with more traditional funds in 2008.”
But does downside risk trump all other variables when considering these outcomes?
It is a key consideration, he says, but it gets back to the basic math of compound returns, where if 50% of the fund’s value is lost it will take a 100% gain to recover. But participating in the upside and limiting the downside are really two sides of the same coin, he notes.
A run-through of the team’s investment process gives us a look at how he balances those two sides. The team first looks at the assets that make sense to include in the portfolio. One key element, of course, is diversification.
“Diversification is a term that’s so widely used I’m not sure it carries as much meaning anymore,” he laments. “It’s really about how assets perform in different economic environments. Rather than saying, ‘Bonds should be X percentage of your portfolio’ we go a step deeper to say, ‘What kinds of bonds make sense and what roles can they play in the portfolio?’ For example, when we think of the different economic outcomes, we think of non-inflationary growth, the ‘Goldilocks’ periods where equities do really well, but certain bonds do well also, like high yield. Then we think of recession when long-term government bonds will be best. Then there are the inflationary periods when you really need to protect the portfolio against unexpected rises in inflation. By calibrating the assets in the portfolio based on those outcomes we think we set ourselves up to be able to build a better portfolio for investors, whether it’s an inflationary growth period or a non-inflationary growth period.”
After deciding which assets make sense to include in the portfolio, the team then considers how to best put the mix together. This, he says, is crucial. With a typical 60/40 portfolio, stocks are three times as risky as bonds and the investor actually ends up with 90% of the portfolio associated with equity risk.
“What that means is (going back to the set of economic environments we previously mentioned), the environment where equities do best is in non-inflationary growth. So implicitly you’re saying ‘I’m willing to bet that we’re going to end up with a pretty pleasant economic outcome and therefore I’m willing to put most of my risk in equity risk.’ The way we think about it is to say ‘We hope that will be case, but we also note that there are going to be periods when things aren’t quite so equity friendly. Therefore, it makes sense to have an equal amount of risk associated with each of those three economic outcomes.’ That creates a different kind of portfolio; one with a much higher allocation to commodities and bonds than would typically be the case in a traditional portfolio.”
The last part of the investment process, he says, is active positioning and including tactical allocations in the portfolio. Wolle says that although over the long term he thinks one-third of the risk in each of those outcomes is appropriate, at certain times various assets will be more or less attractive based on the economy. He wants the flexibility to emphasize or de-emphasize those assets in periods when they’re less likely to do well.