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Portfolio > Economy & Markets

‘Mag 7’ Get Crushed to Lead Losses in Stocks

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What You Need to Know

  • The S&P 500 fell below 5,000, following hawkish Fedspeak, a flare-up in inflation and tensions in the Middle East.

A selloff in the world’s largest technology companies hit stocks, with traders also shunning riskier assets ahead of the weekend amid geopolitical uncertainties.

Equities fell at end of a week that saw the S&P 500 dropping below 5,000, following a rally that sent the benchmark to all-time highs and spurred warnings for a consolidation.

A drumbeat of hawkish Fedspeak and a flare-up in inflation worries have weighed heavily on sentiment, with investors trimming their bets on the keenly anticipated central bank pivot. While the latest tensions in the Middle East seemed contained, traders opted for a cautious stance.

That being said, nothing can be taken for granted, and markets may remain on edge — especially considering the looming weekend risk, according to Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com. He added that inflation continues to be a focal point due to its potential influence on monetary policy.

“The stock market has been declining in recent weeks because rate cut expectations have dropped significantly — and investors are not surprisingly taking some profits after the strong market performance seen during the first quarter,” said Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management.

The S&P 500 is on track for its sixth consecutive drop — the longest losing streak since October 2022. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.5%.

The “Magnificent Seven” megacaps that have powered this year’s surge slumped, with Nvidia Corp. down over 4% and Apple Inc. heading for its lowest close in almost a year. Netflix Inc. tumbled on a bearish forecast.

S&P 500 Moves Away From This Year's Record

Treasury 10-year yields declined one basis point to 4.62% — almost erasing an earlier plunge of 14 basis points. Oil trimmed a major advance to trade only marginally higher after Iranian media appeared to downplay the effect of Israeli strikes.

The stock market is heading toward its third consecutive weekly decline — the longest losing run since September. After a 10% gain in the first quarter — the strongest start to a year since 2019 — investors have been increasingly skeptical about how much further it could go over the near term, even accounting for the continued strength in the economy.

“Geopolitical and political uncertainty join inflation, rates, and the Fed in pressuring markets, driving a rapid and dramatic shift in the complexion of markets and the attitude of investors,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.

S&P 500 Extends Slide Into a Third Straight Week

Federal Reserve officials have said they will need to see more data to become confident enough that inflation is headed to their 2% target before starting to cut interest rates. Investors have dramatically pared bets on easing since the beginning of the year, with markets now seeing one or two rate cuts as likely in 2024, down from as many as six a few months ago.

Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said progress on inflation has stalled, meriting a pause to allow incoming data to provide more insight into how the economy evolves. Economists in the latest Bloomberg monthly survey reduced the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 30% — the smallest odds since June 2022 and down from 35% last month.

The upper boundary of the Fed’s target range for its benchmark interest rate, currently 5.5%, will fall only to 4% by the end of 2025, according to the survey. That’s a half percentage point higher than respondents expected just a month ago.

Tumble in Two Dow Gauges a Cautious Sign

Investors are pulling money out of equities as a strong U.S. economy and sticky inflation fuel concerns that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists.

A team led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note that good economic news is now bad news for stocks, a shift in mindset from the first quarter when “good news = good.” Evidence of this is the $21.1 billion investors redeemed from stock funds in the two weeks through Wednesday, the most in a fortnight since December 2022, BofA said, citing data from EPFR Global.

Companies that move goods around and serve as a bellwether for the American economy sent up a smoke signal this week.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average has tumbled to levels last seen in November and is on track to end lower for the third straight week. Moreover, the losses pushed the index deep below its 200-day moving average, a long-term trend indicator that traders closely watch. It is also on pace for the worst month since October.

The U.S. stock market’s retreat from all-time highs set late last month is giving investors parked in cash an opening to buy in, according to Sinead Colton Grant, chief investment officer of BNY Mellon’s wealth management arm.

The three-week slump in the S&P 500 Index is a healthy consolidation by traders after it soared 10% in the first quarter, on top of a 24% gain in 2023, she said.

From here, Colton Grant expects the rally to not only resume but broaden based on strong earnings growth and continuing economic momentum, potentially pushing the S&P 500 beyond the higher end of her 5,000-5,400 target range before 2024 closes out.

(Credit: Adobe Stock)

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