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Portfolio > Economy & Markets > Fixed Income

4 Moves to Ponder Before and After Rate Cuts: Fidelity

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Expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in 2024 have helped strengthen stock portfolios even as savers enjoy an opportunity to capture appealing yields in certificates of deposit, Treasurys and other low-risk vehicles.

As recently as Wednesday, stocks resumed their rally after Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, told a congressional committee that rate cuts are likely sometime this year, following the central bank’s aggressive rate-hiking campaign in 2022 and 2023 in an effort to wrangle inflation.

Bond markets could see a boost if the Fed does cut rates, Fidelity Investments noted in a recent post. Some estate-planning tools are sensitive to interest rates, so it’s worth exploring how the expected cuts could affect them, the fund giant’s wealth management business added.

Fidelity suggests that clients talk to their advisors and tax pros to make sure that any portfolio or estate-planning changes align with long-term goals.

Here are four tips on how rate cuts could affect client decisions about portfolios and estate-planning strategies — both before and after the Fed makes its anticipated move.

1. Benefiting from bonds now and after cuts.

After a challenging few years, bonds ended 2023 in good shape and could strengthen further in 2024 if the Fed starts lowering rates, Fidelity said.

Investors may have some incentive to buy bonds while interest rates and yields are high, since rate cuts will lower bond yields and raise prices, as Fidelity quoted a Strategic Advisers LLC institutional portfolio manager. Depending on maturity date, an investor holding bonds before rate cuts is likely to benefit, the portfolio manager said.

In the current high-yield environment, high-quality bonds can generate returns that the market hasn’t seen in a while, and bonds also can help investors diversify, even as rates decline if the economy weakens and stocks falter, another Strategic Advisers institutional portfolio manager said.

2. Setting up wealth planning savings before cuts.

Some wealth planning strategies may benefit clients more while rates are high while others could be more appealing when rates fall, Fidelity noted.

Investors may have an opportunity now, while rates are high, to shift significant assets from their taxable estate to a qualified personal residence trust or a charitable remainder annuity trust, the company said.

Marc Morrone, a vice president on Fidelity’s Advanced Planning team, explained that transferring real estate can be more attractive now, with a qualified personal residence trust that allows clients to transfer home ownership to a trust.

This removes future real estate appreciation from their taxable estate while keeping the right to live in the property for a certain period before passing to the trust beneficiary, Fidelity explained. The value of the taxable gift is significantly reduced when rates are high, according to Morrone.

This also could be a good time to use a charitable remainder annuity trust, which allows income generated by assets to be distributed to non-charitable beneficiaries during the trust term, with the remainder later passing to a charitable beneficiary, he explained.

3. Plotting helpful planning moves for lower rates.

Other estate planning tools, such as intra-family loans, grantor retained annuity trusts and charitable lead annuity trusts, should do better when interest rates are low, according to Fidelity.

In that environment, it could be a good time to consider refinancing intra-family loans, which allow family members to offer loans at lower rates than those available from commercial lenders, according to the company.

(Experian explains that intra-family housing loans allow a parent or grandparent, for example, to help offspring buy a home, providing interest savings for the borrower and allowing the lender to pass along wealth without paying estate taxes.)

4. Remembering market timing risks.

All that said, while certain investing and estate planning vehicles should do better in one rate environment or the other, clients would do well to keep a long-term perspective.

One Strategic Advisers portfolio manager cautioned against trying to reallocate assets to take advantage of short-term market shifts, saying that clients may do better by figuring out the right stock and bond mix for them, for the long run, rather than guessing on what to invest in based on interest rates.

*Image: Adobe Stock*


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