All-Cause U.S. Mortality Rate Stays High

The total number of U.S. deaths recorded in May was still above the pre-COVID-19 average.

At least 222,198 people died in the United States from all causes in May, according to preliminary data accompanying the CDC’s latest weekly influenza report.

That was 5.6% higher than the total the CDC reported for May 2022 (as of July 2022), and it was 21% higher than the May death averages the CDC preliminarily reported for the period from 2017 through 2019.

The current, preliminary, incomplete 2023 May death count is still 5.6% higher than the 2017-2019 May average based on the CDC’s final data for each year.

In April, all-cause mortality was 5.4% higher than the 2017-2019 April average.

The United States recorded about 2.7 million deaths per year before the COVID-19 began. A 5% increase in mortality that lasts an entire year would mean that the country would experience about 135,000 extra deaths.

What It Means

Uncertainty about if and when mortality will get back to normal could continue to complicate life insurance and retirement planning.

Some actuaries believe that the increase in mortality could add to uncertainty by correlating with longer life expectancy for typical older clients, because the pandemic has accelerated the deaths of many people who were in poor health.

The Numbers

The CDC has cut back on mortality reporting now that the number of hospitalizations and deaths attributed to COVID-19 has fallen.

Officials continue to post new weekly mortality data, as well as an archive of older weekly mortality spreadsheets along with charts that epidemiologists use to determine whether the United States is experiencing an epidemic.

In May, doctors attributed 5.8% of the deaths in the data to COVID-19.

The total number of U.S. deaths caused by COVID-19 and two other, similar conditions, flu and pneumonia, was 15,171 in May 2023. That was 16% lower than COVID-19, flu and pneumonia death count for May 2022 and 15% higher than the 2017-2019 May average, based on comparisons of the new, preliminary 2023 data with final data from earlier years..

The total number of deaths caused by other conditions, such as heart attacks, cancer and accidents, was 207,027. That was 2.4% lower than the May 2022 total and 4.3% higher than the 2017-2019 May average

Some of the factors other than respiratory diseases that could affect the death rate could include the effects of the pandemic on the economy and the health care system, changes in medical technology and treatment strategies, and the aging of the population.