People Ages 35-44 Faced Biggest 2020 Death Rate Spike: CDC

The COVID-19 pandemic ended up causing a much bigger percentage increase in death rates for people ages 25 through 44 than in the death rate for people ages 65 and older, according to a new government report on final 2020 U.S. mortality data.

The death rates for people in the 25-34 and 35-44 age groups increased about 24% between 2019.

Americans aged 65 and up continued to be much more likely to die than younger people, but the percentage change in their death rate was less than 20%.

Here’s what happened to deaths per 100,000 people in 2020 for each age group in the final mortality data report:

• 85 and older: 15,210.9 (up 15.0%)
• 75-84: 4,997 (up 16.0%)
• 65-74: 2,072.3 (up 17.4%)
• 55-64: 1,038.9 (up 17.6%)
• 45-54: 473.5 (up 20.7%)
• 35-44: 248 (up 24.5%)
• 25-34: 159.5 (up 23.8%)
• 15-24: 84.2 (up 20.8%)
• 5-14: 13.7 (up 2.5%)
• 1-4: 22.7 (down 2.6%)

The death rate changes reflect deaths caused by COVID-19 itself, the effects of the pandemic on people’s access to health care and the effects of social distancing rules and other pandemic control efforts on people’s well-being, along with other factors, such as the impact of opioid abuse.

Anything that increases the death rate of people in the 25-34 and 35-444 age groups is of keen interest to life insurers, because insurers typically see those people as prime candidates for low-cost term life policies that can protect young families against the risk of premature death. Even before COVID-19 came along, from 1999 through 2017, mortality statistics for the 25-34 age group were deteriorating, possibly because of factors such as opioid abuse and the growing number of people with diabetes.

For life insurers, one major challenge will be determining how mortality trends for people with life insurance compared with mortality trends for people in the general population.

The 2020 Mortality Backdrop

Analysts at the National Center for Health Statistics, an arm of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, included the age-group death rate data in a general review of 2020 U.S. mortality trends.

Because of COVID-19 itself, and the effects of the pandemic on the economy and society, the total number of U.S. deaths increased 18.5% between 2019 and 2020, to 3,383,729.

The overall age-adjusted death rate increased by 16.8% between 2019 and 2020, to 835.4 per 100,000 U.S. residents.

Because the death rate for younger people increased more than the death rate for older people, life expectancy at birth fell more than life expectancy at age 65.

Life expectancy at birth fell 1.8 years, to 77, and life expectancy at age 65 fell 1.1 years. People who were 65 could expect to live 18.5 more years, to age 83.5.

The Final Numbers vs. the Early Numbers

The National Center for Health Statistics published a similar report, based on provisional data in July.