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The CDC's Thanksgiving Week COVID-19 Death Forecast By State

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COVID-19 forecasters are predicting that pandemic mortality will be about 0.7% higher during Thanksgiving week than it was last week.

The United States could record about 7,244 deaths, and the number of deaths in the typical state could fall 2.7%, according to the most precise figures available in a set of forecasts compiled by a team at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The forecasters typically give estimates of the minimum and maximum number of COVID-19 deaths, but the CDC also reports their “point” predictions, or best guesses.

Factors that could throw off the forecasts range from the rise of new variants of the virus that causes COVID-19 to the start of a new flu epidemic.

For a look at the five states where the number of pandemic-related deaths could increase the most, on a percentage basis, see the slideshow above.

For data for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, see the chart below.

The CDC’s State COVID-19 Death Predictions

Number of Deaths (week ending Nov. 15) Death Forecast (week ending Nov. 27) Change
Alabama 120 99 -17.5%
Alaska 39 26 -33.3%
Arizona 244 311 +27.5%
Arkansas 71 67 -5.6%
California 591 529 -10.5%
Colorado 202 237 +17.3%
Connecticut 36 22 -38.9%
Delaware 22 21 -4.5%
District of Columbia 2 1 -50.0%
Florida 19 279 +1368.4%
Georgia 388 213 -45.1%
Hawaii 15 18 +20.0%
Idaho 74 72 -2.7%
Illinois 155 171 +10.3%
Indiana 190 232 +22.1%
Iowa 97 104 +7.2%
Kansas 80 126 +57.5%
Kentucky 218 151 -30.7%
Louisiana 77 45 -41.6%
Maine 28 30 +7.1%
Maryland 76 70 -7.9%
Massachusetts 96 86 -10.4%
Michigan 223 386 +73.1%
Minnesota 134 209 +56.0%
Mississippi 38 34 -10.5%
Missouri 92 116 +26.1%
Montana 67 60 -10.4%
Nebraska 30 46 +53.3%
Nevada 85 86 +1.2%
New Hampshire 31 36 +16.1%
New Jersey 85 96 +12.9%
New Mexico 67 86 +28.4%
New York 245 254 +3.7%
North Carolina 120 130 +8.3%
North Dakota 27 27 0%
Ohio 576 299 -48.1%
Oklahoma 63 91 +44.4%
Oregon 183 111 -39.3%
Pennsylvania 496 462 -6.9%
Rhode Island 14 6 -57.1%
South Carolina 46 87 +89.1%
South Dakota 22 21 -4.5%
Tennessee 127 108 -15.0%
Texas 867 544 -37.3%
Utah 73 74 +1.4%
Vermont 7 17 +142.9%
Virginia 197 157 -20.3%
Washington 163 130 -20.2%
West Virginia 88 81 -8.0%
Wisconsin 130 150 +15.4%
Wyoming 55 37 -32.7%
TOTAL 7,191 7,244 -
MEDIAN - - -2.7%

Pictured: This CDC chart shows the recent weekly COVID-19 death counts, which may reflect data reporting delays, along with several forecasters’ most specific predictions for the next few weeks, along with shaded areas representing how high and how low each of those forecasters think the numbers might really go. (Image: CDC)