50 States of New U.S. Mortality Data

Related: 5 Worst States for COVID-19 Mortality Change Now

For now, the U.S. death counts for mid-September look good — because they’re probably incomplete.

Analysts are showing that the total number of U.S. deaths fell to 50,299 for the week ending Sept. 18, down from 65 465 for the week ending Aug. 21, and that the number of people listed as dying from COVID-19 fell to 9,929, from 11,476.

The ratio of actual deaths to “expected deaths” fell to 101% in the typical state, from 125% a month earlier,

But one other key statistic went in a bad direction: the percentage of all deaths attributed to COVID-19.

That percentage increased to 15.8% on Sept. 18, down from 11.6% a month earlier.

In seven states, the percentage of deaths attributed to the pandemic jumped 10 percentage points or more between August and September.

That might be a sign that overall COVID-19 mortality also jumped in September, and that any apparent easing of pandemic intensity has to do with data reporting problems, rather than a real decrease in pandemic intensity.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic came along, a factor that increased the ratio of the actual number of deaths to the expected number by more than 1% for more than a few weeks would have been considered noteworthy.

Increased mortality can have the biggest immediate impact on life, health and annuity issuers by increasing life insurance death benefits payouts, and by decreasing pension and long-term care insurance benfits obligations. Increased mortality may also decrease individual annuity obligations, but that effect tends to be relatively small, because many contracts offer death-related benefits.

For a look at the five states where the percentage of deaths attributed to COVID-19 increased the most, see the slideshow above.

For a look at data for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, see the chart below.

— Related on ThinkAdvisor:

Jurisdiction	COVID-19 Deaths	Total Deaths	Ratio of Actual Deaths to Expected	Percentage of Total Deaths Caused by COVID-19	COVID-19 Deaths	Total Deaths	Ratio of Actual Deaths to Expected	Percentage of Total Deaths Caused by COVID-19	Change in the Percentage of Deaths Caused by COVID-19, in percentage points
Total Deaths, COVID-19 Deaths and the Percentage of All Deaths Caused by COVID-19
	(Week ending Aug. 21)				(Week ending Sept. 18)
Alabama	404	1,492	157%	27.1%	343	1,074	112%	31.9%	4.9
Alaska	20	113	125%	17.7%	NA	25	31%	NA	NA
Arizona	172	1,478	145%	11.6%	213	1,335	126%	16.0%	4.3
Arkansas	224	834	147%	26.9%	134	685	111%	19.6%	-7.3
California	798	6,125	130%	13.0%	639	4,109	87%	15.6%	2.5
Colorado	84	907	129%	9.3%	87	771	105%	11.3%	2.0
Connecticut	21	488	90%	4.3%	13	114	20%	11.4%	7.1
Delaware	19	210	125%	9.0%	30	148	88%	20.3%	11.2
District of Columbia	13	114	99%	11.4%	NA	40	35%	NA	NA
Florida	2,579	7,094	193%	36.4%	1,504	4,855	127%	31.0%	-5.4
Georgia	645	2,263	142%	28.5%	501	1,483	94%	33.8%	5.3
Hawaii	32	298	144%	10.7%	27	183	77%	14.8%	4.0
Idaho	45	341	139%	13.2%	119	377	146%	31.6%	18.4
Illinois	198	2,250	121%	8.8%	238	2,000	101%	11.9%	3.1
Indiana	159	1,405	118%	11.3%	197	999	83%	19.7%	8.4
Iowa	47	620	120%	7.6%	80	526	96%	15.2%	7.6
Kansas	85	619	133%	13.7%	83	538	113%	15.4%	1.7
Kentucky	199	1,073	125%	18.5%	232	725	81%	32.0%	13.5
Louisiana	374	1,162	138%	32.2%	135	535	61%	25.2%	-7.0
Maine	10	306	114%	3.3%	28	317	116%5	8.8%	5.6
Maryland	57	929	102%	6.1%	105	962	107%	10.9%	4.8
Massachusetts	34	1,118	106%	3.0%	64	1,051	98%	6.1%	3.0_
Michigan	109	2,021	115%	5.4%	170	1,778	101%	9.6%	4.2
Minnesota	32	830	105%	3.9%	75	758	92%	9.9%	6.0
Mississippi	310	940	166%	33.0%	185	703	119%	26.3%	-6.7
Missouri	296	1,498	127%	19.8%	205	1,109	94%	18.5%	-1.3
Montana	46	270	147%	17.0%	48	254	137%	18.9%	1.9
Nebraska	38	333	109%	11.4%	25	216	69%	11.6%	0.2
Nevada	177	693	152%	25.5%	128	508	109%	25.2%	-0.3
New Hampshire	NA	255	111%	NA	14	273	116%	5.1%	NA
New Jersey	87	1,439	111%	6.0%	118	1,402	106%	8.4%	2.4
New Mexico	48	402	119%	11.9%	43	273	83%	15.8%	3.8
New York	118	1,971	109%	6.0%	209	2,153	122%	9.7%	3.7
New York City	67	1,087	111%	6.2%	66	1,016	104%	6.5%	0.3
North Carolina	333	1,032	60%	32.3%	64	492	29%	13.0%	-19.3
North Dakota	NA	84	59%	NA	10	152	107%	6.6%	NA
Ohio	200	2,470	111%	8.1%	275	1,706	74%	16.1%	8.0
Oklahoma	241	1,051	149%	22.9%	170	673	93%	25.3%	2.3
Oregon	142	903	136%	15.7%	129	562	88%	23.0%	7.2
Pennsylvania	129	2,589	108%	5.0%	271	2,562	104%	10.6%	5.6
Puerto Rico	88	546	100%	16.1%	50	236	42%	21.2%	5.1
Rhode Island	NA	203	110%	NA	NA	56	30%	NA	NA
South Carolina	263	1,319	148%	19.9%	288	922	102%	31.2%	11.3
South Dakota	10	155	105%	6.5%	10	97	63%	10.3%	3.9
Tennessee	360	1,891	145%	19.0%	561	1,708	123%	32.8%	13.8
Texas	1,738	6,045	165%	28.8%	1,276	3,844	104%	33.2%	4.4
Utah	63	462	135%	13.6%	83	459	135%	18.1%	4.4
Vermont	NA	119	112%	NA	NA	119	117%	0.0%	NA
Virginia	141	1,582	129%	8.9%	248	1,471	119%	16.9%	7.9
Washington	153	1,311	127%	11.7%	216	974	97%	22.2%	10.5
West Virginia	34	36	9%	94.4%	85	87	21%	97.7%	3.3
Wisconsin	73	1,132	120%	6.4%	136	1,025	103%	13.3%	6.8
Wyoming	15	103	129%	14.6%	32	95	106%	33.7%	19.1