If elected president, the first items on former Vice President Joe Biden’s do-list would likely be reversing President Donald Trump’s deregulatory moves and enacting a stimulus package, Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist for AGF Investments, said Tuesday.
During his comments at the virtual Schwab Impact conference, Valliere said that “sadly” a stimulus package has stalled.
“The momentum is pretty much gone” for a stimulus deal, “so it might be left to Joe Biden right after his inauguration to work on a big stimulus — maybe as much as $3 trillion. Congress has already spent $3 trillion, and another $3 would be likely” if Biden wins, Valliere opined.
Biden, Valliere continued, would hold off on tax hikes.
He might be concerned the economy is too fragile. Also, “would he really want to antagonize Wall Street right away after his inauguration by raising taxes?”
Tax hikes under a Biden administration “are coming, but they may be coming later rather than sooner,” Valliere said.
Who’s Going to Win the Election?
While Biden will win the popular vote, Valliere stated, “the electoral college is going to be much closer.”
Biden “will be just about there” if he wins “the big three — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin,” Valliere stated. “He might need New Hampshire; Arizona would be a great coup for him.”
That being said, “in every speech that I’ve done this year, I’ve begun by saying, ‘you underestimate Donald Trump at your own peril.’ He is a ferocious campaigner. He has tremendous energy. It’s still a little too soon to rule him out even though we only have a week to go” before the election.
Biden, however, has a 25% advantage over Trump among female voters in certain areas of the country, Valliere said.
Also, while Trump carried senior citizens in 2016, “this time an awful lot of seniors are saying they don’t like the way he handled the virus,” Valliere added. “So it’s not a surprise to see Arizona and Florida, two states filled with retirees, are very, very close.”
As to the prospect of a disputed election, “I’m not at all convinced we’ll know the winner on election night,” Valliere said. “It could take several days or weeks. We could go to bed on the night of Nov. 3 not knowing the winner.”
The prospect of the Senate flipping to Democratic control — and the House staying that way — “is a big deal for investors because I think the markets in general prefer divided government.”
One party “controlling everything,” he continued, “would lead to some anxiety. Not only about higher taxes, but anxiety over, say, the defense sector, which may not see spending increases; anxiety over fossil fuels — clearly Joe Biden wants to move to alternative energy. Concern over financial services regulation, health care. There’s a lot of things that would not be treated well if one party controlled everything.”