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COVID-19 Hospitalization Map Continues to Darken

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COVID-19 is continuing to fill U.S. hospital beds.

As of July 20, the number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 was over 58,000, or about as high as it was in April, when hospitals in the New York City area were scouring the world for ventilators.

Surges in hospitalization rates are now showing up in every state in the South and Southwest other than New Mexico.

At least 1 in every 5,000 residents of those states is in the hospital with a confirmed or suspected case of COVID-19, and about 1 in every 2,500 residents of Arizona and Florida is in the hospital with COVID-19, according to state and local public health agency data compiled by The COVID Tracking Project at The Atlantic.

Resources

  • The CDC’s weekly COVID-19 report is available here.
  • The COVID Tracking Project at The Atlantic is available here.
  • An overview article about the weekly COVID-19 report for the previous week is available here.

New York state and some other states that were hit hard in March and April started to get new infection rates under control in late April.

Those states now have COVID-19 hospitalization rates under 5 per 100,000 residents, meaning that fewer than 1 in 20,000 residents is in the hospital with COVID-19.

The median for the United States is 7.7 COVID-19 hospitalizations per 100,000 residents, or about 1 hospitalization per 13,000 residents.

The total number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 fell to less than 30,000 throughout much of June, and it looked as if the country might be turning a corner.

But now, hospitalization rates have turned in the wrong direction in much of the country.

Between the week ending July 13 and the week ending July 20, for example, only 15 states reported falling numbers of COVID-19 hospitalizations per 100,000 residents. The rest reported increases.

Impact on Life and Health Insurers

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that about 400,000 people have entered U.S. hospitals with COVID-19, and that about 134,000 people have died from COVID-19, implying that about 30% of the people who enter U.S. hospitals with COVID-19  die.

In May and June, some life insurance company executives expressed the hope that the country was putting excess COVID-19-related mortality behind it.

But now, the new wave of COVID-19 hospitalizations appears to be likely to lead to a new wave of COVID-19-related deaths.

Globe Life is giving life insurance claim projections indicating that the company expects roughly 225,000 people to die from COVID-19 by the end of the year.

One lingering question is what will happen to disability insurance claims. Anecdotal reports suggest that most young people hospitalized with COVID-19 survive, but that some of the survivors emerge with chronic respiratory or neurological problems.

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COVID-19 Hospitalization Rates, by State

This chart shows the number of people hospitalized with confirmed or probable cases of COVID-19, per 100,000 lives, as of July 13, July 20 and Sunday.
Population Number Hospitalized Hospitalizations per 100,000 lives Number Hospitalized Hospitalizations per 100,000 lives Number Hospitalized Hospitalizations per 100,000 lives
July 13 July 20 July 26
Alabama 4,903,185           1,335 27.2        1,571 32.0        1,505 30.7
Alaska 731,545                22 3.0             29 4.0             43 5.9
Arizona 7,278,717           3,373 46.3        3,084 42.4        2,650 36.4
Arkansas 3,017,804              439 14.5           471 15.6           479 15.9
California 39,512,223           7,895 20.0        8,419 21.3        8,820 22.3
Colorado 5,758,736              324 5.6           397 6.9           338 5.9
Connecticut 3,565,287                74 2.1             54 1.5             71 2.0
Delaware 973,764                49 5.0             47 4.8             57 5.9
District of Columbia 705,749                93 13.2             83 11.8             85 12.0
Florida 21,477,737           8,051 37.5        9,489 44.2        8,951 41.7
Georgia 10,617,423           2,600 24.5        3,183 30.0        3,079 29.0
Hawaii 1,415,872 Not available 0.0             33 2.3             29 2.0
Idaho 1,787,065              153 8.6           224 12.5           204 11.4
Illinois 12,671,821           1,362 10.7        1,410 11.1        1,394 11.0
Indiana 6,732,219              764 11.3           805 12.0           834 12.4
Iowa 3,155,070              186 5.9           221 7.0           226 7.2
Kansas 2,913,314 Not available 0.0 Not available Not available           315 10.8
Kentucky 4,467,673              440 9.8           542 12.1           595 13.3
Louisiana 4,648,794           1,308 28.1        1,508 32.4        1,557 33.5
Maine 1,344,212                18 1.3             12 0.9             14 1.0
Maryland 6,045,680              386 6.4           463 7.7           540 8.9
Massachusetts 6,892,503              570 8.3           483 7.0           364 5.3
Michigan 9,986,857              543 5.4           680 6.8           680 6.8
Minnesota 5,639,632              247 4.4           247 4.4           273 4.8
Mississippi 2,976,149           1,020 34.3        1,119 37.6        1,172 39.4
Missouri 6,137,428              932 15.2           875 14.3        1,057 17.2
Montana 1,068,778                28 2.6             48 4.5             62 5.8
Nebraska 1,934,408                98 5.1           121 6.3           103 5.3
Nevada 3,080,156              953 30.9        1,086 35.3        1,147 37.2
New Hampshire 1,359,711                22 1.6             17 1.3             20 1.5
New Jersey 8,882,190              892 10.0           798 9.0           725 8.2
New Mexico 2,096,829              170 8.1           161 7.7           148 7.1
New York 19,453,561              792 4.1           716 3.7           637 3.3
North Carolina 10,488,084           1,040 9.9        1,086 10.4        1,170 11.2
North Dakota 762,062                43 5.6             47 6.2             42 5.5
Ohio 11,689,100              949 8.1        1,065 9.1        1,075 9.2
Oklahoma 3,956,971              499 12.6           604 15.3           625 15.8
Oregon 4,217,737              246 5.8           233 5.5           233 5.5
Pennsylvania 12,801,989              682 5.3           706 5.5           707 5.5
Rhode Island 1,059,361                67 6.3             61 5.8             66 6.2
South Carolina 5,148,714           1,488 28.9        1,593 30.9        1,668 32.4
South Dakota 884,659                63 7.1             65 7.3             48 5.4
Tennessee 6,829,174           1,120 16.4        1,368 20.0        1,313 19.2
Texas 28,995,881        10,405 35.9     10,569 36.5     10,893 37.6
Utah 3,205,958              252 7.9           247 7.7           251 7.8
Vermont 623,989                10 1.6             22 3.5             10 1.6
Virginia 8,535,519           1,129 13.2        1,158 13.6        1,174 13.8
Washington 7,614,893              331 4.3           354 4.6           407 5.3
West Virginia 1,792,147                63 3.5             77 4.3             82 4.6
Wisconsin 5,822,434              283 4.9           368 6.3           165 2.8
Wyoming 578,759                17 2.9             13 2.2             14 2.4
Sources: Hospitalization numbers: The COVID Tracking Project (CC BY-NC 4.0). Population: Census Bureau, 2019 estimates

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— Read COVID-19 Might Have Caused $2 Billion in U.S. Life Claims So Faron ThinkAdvisor.

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