COVID-19 Hospitalization Map Continues to Darken

COVID-19 is continuing to fill U.S. hospital beds.

As of July 20, the number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 was over 58,000, or about as high as it was in April, when hospitals in the New York City area were scouring the world for ventilators.

Surges in hospitalization rates are now showing up in every state in the South and Southwest other than New Mexico.

At least 1 in every 5,000 residents of those states is in the hospital with a confirmed or suspected case of COVID-19, and about 1 in every 2,500 residents of Arizona and Florida is in the hospital with COVID-19, according to state and local public health agency data compiled by The COVID Tracking Project at The Atlantic.

Resources

The CDC’s weekly COVID-19 report is available here.
The COVID Tracking Project at The Atlantic is available here.
An overview article about the weekly COVID-19 report for the previous week is available here.

New York state and some other states that were hit hard in March and April started to get new infection rates under control in late April.

Those states now have COVID-19 hospitalization rates under 5 per 100,000 residents, meaning that fewer than 1 in 20,000 residents is in the hospital with COVID-19.

The median for the United States is 7.7 COVID-19 hospitalizations per 100,000 residents, or about 1 hospitalization per 13,000 residents.

The total number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 fell to less than 30,000 throughout much of June, and it looked as if the country might be turning a corner.

But now, hospitalization rates have turned in the wrong direction in much of the country.

Between the week ending July 13 and the week ending July 20, for example, only 15 states reported falling numbers of COVID-19 hospitalizations per 100,000 residents. The rest reported increases.

Impact on Life and Health Insurers

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that about 400,000 people have entered U.S. hospitals with COVID-19, and that about 134,000 people have died from COVID-19, implying that about 30% of the people who enter U.S. hospitals with COVID-19 die.

In May and June, some life insurance company executives expressed the hope that the country was putting excess COVID-19-related mortality behind it.

But now, the new wave of COVID-19 hospitalizations appears to be likely to lead to a new wave of COVID-19-related deaths.

Globe Life is giving life insurance claim projections indicating that the company expects roughly 225,000 people to die from COVID-19 by the end of the year.

One lingering question is what will happen to disability insurance claims. Anecdotal reports suggest that most young people hospitalized with COVID-19 survive, but that some of the survivors emerge with chronic respiratory or neurological problems.

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COVID-19 Hospitalization Rates, by State
This chart shows the number of people hospitalized with confirmed or probable cases of COVID-19, per 100,000 lives, as of July 13, July 20 and Sunday.
	Population	Number Hospitalized	Hospitalizations per 100,000 lives	Number Hospitalized	Hospitalizations per 100,000 lives	Number Hospitalized	Hospitalizations per 100,000 lives
		July 13		July 20		July 26
Alabama	4,903,185	1,335	27.2	1,571	32.0	1,505	30.7
Alaska	731,545	22	3.0	29	4.0	43	5.9
Arizona	7,278,717	3,373	46.3	3,084	42.4	2,650	36.4
Arkansas	3,017,804	439	14.5	471	15.6	479	15.9
California	39,512,223	7,895	20.0	8,419	21.3	8,820	22.3
Colorado	5,758,736	324	5.6	397	6.9	338	5.9
Connecticut	3,565,287	74	2.1	54	1.5	71	2.0
Delaware	973,764	49	5.0	47	4.8	57	5.9
District of Columbia	705,749	93	13.2	83	11.8	85	12.0
Florida	21,477,737	8,051	37.5	9,489	44.2	8,951	41.7
Georgia	10,617,423	2,600	24.5	3,183	30.0	3,079	29.0
Hawaii	1,415,872	Not available	0.0	33	2.3	29	2.0
Idaho	1,787,065	153	8.6	224	12.5	204	11.4
Illinois	12,671,821	1,362	10.7	1,410	11.1	1,394	11.0
Indiana	6,732,219	764	11.3	805	12.0	834	12.4
Iowa	3,155,070	186	5.9	221	7.0	226	7.2
Kansas	2,913,314	Not available	0.0	Not available	Not available	315	10.8
Kentucky	4,467,673	440	9.8	542	12.1	595	13.3
Louisiana	4,648,794	1,308	28.1	1,508	32.4	1,557	33.5
Maine	1,344,212	18	1.3	12	0.9	14	1.0
Maryland	6,045,680	386	6.4	463	7.7	540	8.9
Massachusetts	6,892,503	570	8.3	483	7.0	364	5.3
Michigan	9,986,857	543	5.4	680	6.8	680	6.8
Minnesota	5,639,632	247	4.4	247	4.4	273	4.8
Mississippi	2,976,149	1,020	34.3	1,119	37.6	1,172	39.4
Missouri	6,137,428	932	15.2	875	14.3	1,057	17.2
Montana	1,068,778	28	2.6	48	4.5	62	5.8
Nebraska	1,934,408	98	5.1	121	6.3	103	5.3
Nevada	3,080,156	953	30.9	1,086	35.3	1,147	37.2
New Hampshire	1,359,711	22	1.6	17	1.3	20	1.5
New Jersey	8,882,190	892	10.0	798	9.0	725	8.2
New Mexico	2,096,829	170	8.1	161	7.7	148	7.1
New York	19,453,561	792	4.1	716	3.7	637	3.3
North Carolina	10,488,084	1,040	9.9	1,086	10.4	1,170	11.2
North Dakota	762,062	43	5.6	47	6.2	42	5.5
Ohio	11,689,100	949	8.1	1,065	9.1	1,075	9.2
Oklahoma	3,956,971	499	12.6	604	15.3	625	15.8
Oregon	4,217,737	246	5.8	233	5.5	233	5.5
Pennsylvania	12,801,989	682	5.3	706	5.5	707	5.5
Rhode Island	1,059,361	67	6.3	61	5.8	66	6.2
South Carolina	5,148,714	1,488	28.9	1,593	30.9	1,668	32.4
South Dakota	884,659	63	7.1	65	7.3	48	5.4
Tennessee	6,829,174	1,120	16.4	1,368	20.0	1,313	19.2
Texas	28,995,881	10,405	35.9	10,569	36.5	10,893	37.6
Utah	3,205,958	252	7.9	247	7.7	251	7.8
Vermont	623,989	10	1.6	22	3.5	10	1.6
Virginia	8,535,519	1,129	13.2	1,158	13.6	1,174	13.8
Washington	7,614,893	331	4.3	354	4.6	407	5.3
West Virginia	1,792,147	63	3.5	77	4.3	82	4.6
Wisconsin	5,822,434	283	4.9	368	6.3	165	2.8
Wyoming	578,759	17	2.9	13	2.2	14	2.4
Sources: Hospitalization numbers: The COVID Tracking Project (CC BY-NC 4.0). Population: Census Bureau, 2019 estimates