12. Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

May jobs lost: 210,000
Total jobs lost: 750,000
New jobless claims: down 40%
(Photo: Shutterstock)

11. Construction and Utilities

May jobs lost: 236,000
Total jobs lost: 1.2 million
New jobless claims: down 62%
(Photo: Shutterstock)

10. Educational Services

May jobs lost: 255,000
Total jobs lost: 749,000
New jobless claims: down 12%
(Photo: Shutterstock)

9. Transportation and Warehousing

May jobs lost: 272,000
Total jobs lost: 864,000
New jobless claims: down 27%
(Photo: Shutterstock)

8. Other Services

May jobs lost: 342,000
Total jobs lost: 1.6 million
New jobless claims: down 57%
(Photo: Shutterstock)

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7. Manufacturing

May jobs lost: 456,000
Total jobs lost: 1.8 million
New jobless claims: down 46%
(Photo: Shutterstock)

6. Public Administration

May jobs lost: 580,000
Total jobs lost: 1.6 million
New jobless claims: down 7%
(Photo: Shutterstock)

5. Arts, Entertainment and Recreation

May jobs lost: 582,000
Total jobs lost: 1.9 million
New jobless claims: down 31%
(Photo: Shutterstock)

4. Administrative and Support Services

May jobs lost: 657,000
Total jobs lost: 2.3 million
New jobless claims: down 33%
(Photo: Shutterstock)

3. Health Care and Social Assistance

May jobs lost: 692,000
Total jobs lost: 2.8 million
New jobless claims: down 48%
(Photo: Shutterstock)

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2. Retail Trade

May jobs lost: 696,000
Total jobs lost: 2.8 million
New jobless claims: down 48%
(Photo: Shutterstock)

1. Accommodation and Food Services

May jobs lost: 2.5 million
Total jobs lost: 9.3 million
New jobless claims: down 37%
(Photo: Shutterstock)

 

News from the U.S. labor market has been unprecedentedly grim since the new coronavirus unleashed its fury across the country in March, and is likely to remain so when May unemployment figures are released on Friday, Bank of America Global Research said in a new report.

“By our analysis, nonfarm payrolls will likely contract by 8.0 million jobs in May and the unemployment rate should climb to 19%,” the bank’s economists wrote.

BofA arrived at those figures by collecting employment data from 13 states, and then extrapolating the percent change in cumulative initial claims for each industry during the relevant weeks for the April and May jobs reports, applying that to April payroll growth, and then scaling to arrive at its total nonfarm payroll forecast.

The 13 states in the analysis are Alabama, Iowa, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Nevada, New York, North Dakota, Oregon, Rhode Island and Washington.

BofA’s outlook for a recovery? Notwithstanding optimistic consumer expectations, it said uncertainty about several factors suggest a grimmer reality: A vaccine for the virus is not in the immediate or even medium-term future, and a possible second wave of the virus may strike as the economy reopens, slowing recovery.

BofA also cited a recent paper, which argued that two in five jobs lost to the COVID-19 shock would never return.

See the gallery for the 12 sectors BofA predicts will have the biggest job losses in May.

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