Lingering concerns by many Americans over the coronavirus will likely result in a “lag” in the economic recovery, which stands to be more of a “U-shaped” one than the “V-shaped” recovery that some are expecting, according to Ryan Nauman, market strategist at Informa Financial Intelligence.
“A lot of folks out there are expecting a ‘V-shaped’ recovery,” including the International Monetary Fund, once the economy is reopened, he said Tuesday during the webinar “Riding the Black Swan to a COVID-19 Recovery.”
That optimism is based on “the assumption that people will resume spending and traveling like prior to the crisis, without much concern,” he said.
“I do believe people are itching to get out and travel and spend, especially after being cooped up for so long,” he conceded. Some consumers will also “have fatter savings accounts due to the limited places they can spend money right now,” he noted. Based on that, Nauman said he could see why some people believe we will have a V-shaped recovery.
“However, I’m uncertain that everyone is going to rush out the moment that the all-clear signal is given,” he said, adding: “I think it will be a lag as I think some people will remain cautious and might wait until a vaccine is available before jumping on an airplane or spending money on entertainment” such as attending a concert.