J.P. Morgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist David Kelly’s view of current uncertainty is that we’re “only in the early chapters of what the coronavirus could mean for the global economy.”
“The way to think about this is that 2020 was going to be the year of the election. That script is gone,” the economist said. “This is the year of the virus.”
“There’s a lot we don’t know” about the virus and its impact, he said. “We don’t know how far this virus is going spread and … sadly how many people this virus is going to kill.”
The strategist said, overall, “This could get very bad for the global economy, because this virus is just lethal enough for everybody to pay attention and for it to slow down the global economy, cause social distancing and so forth.”
On the upside, it’s “not going to last forever,” Kelly added. “This is not a multi-year event.”
Though it could take some time for a vaccine to be readily available, “12 to 18 months down the road, we are going to be talking about a recovery from whatever it was,” he said.
“The whole point is that there isn’t an easy playbook” for investors, Kelly said. “If there was an easy playbook, then the uncertainty wouldn’t be as great and the markets would bounce back faster.”