Buy American. That’s one of several investment ideas Nuveen’s Chief Equity Strategist Bob Doll is recommending for the next 12 months.
Doll says he favors U.S. companies that conduct most of their business domestically because U.S. economic growth tops the growth of most other developed economies, in Europe and Japan, and of emerging economies.
He describes his outlook as anti-multinational because those companies are not only more susceptible to slowing growth outside the U.S. but also subject to the vagaries of the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.
Unlike many other market strategists Doll does not expect the U.S. economy will slip into recession this year or next — 2021 is his forecast — and he is avoiding most defensive sectors, favoring instead companies that benefit from the current economic cycle, as the expansion continues though growth has slowed.
For those investors who want to hedge risk, Doll recommends absolute return products that include long and short positions.
He expects U.S. GDP will slow to around 2% this year, down from 2.5% in 2018. Longer term U.S. economic growth will remain closer to 2% than 3.2% that has prevailed since after World War II because of demographics. Fewer births mean fewer workers, which would help boost productivity.