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May 13, 2016 at 10:20 AM
DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach says Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen will have a tough time raising interest rates this year. He also believes Donald Trump is likely to win the race for the White House.
Talking about hawkish sentiment on the Fed during a conference call Thursday, Gundlach said there is “some rebellion showing up at the Fed.”
Yellen, he says, is “the biggest dove,” and he sees just a 50% chance of for one rate hike this year.
While two members of the Fed have been discussing the need to raise interest rates perhaps twice this year, “I think one hike will be challenging enough,” said Gundlach.
“Yellen has capitulated to the bond market, about half of the time this year,” he added.
As for the presidential elections, Gundlach thinks Donald Trump could win as the Republican candidate. The businessman has been “underestimated” for months, Gundlach said during an interview with Reuters after the conference call; plus, Trump is the “better campaigner.”
“People are going to start putting greater focus on Hillary. Voters are going to say, ‘No. I don’t want this,’” he told Reuters. “Hillary is going to evolve into an unacceptable choice. If she is such a great candidate, how come [Bernie Sanders] is beating her?”
(While Clinton is the likely nominee, Sanders has won several recent primaries and performs better than Clinton against Trump in some national polls.)
Unfunded Liabilities
During the conference call, Gundlach was asked about Britain’s upcoming vote on whether to exit the European Union and insisted that such a move toward protectionism “will not happen.”
He is more concerned with unfunded liabilities on the U.S. government’s balance sheet, which some economists say are valued at $120 trillion in today’s dollars, according to Gundlach.
“This will come into focus … we’re just in a quiet period right now,” said the DoubleLine executive. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, he says, high levels of debt tied to quantitative easing will be “rolling over.”
“A Trump win could bring huge increase in the budget deficit and could produce some short-term economic gain but then compound our problems,” he explained during the conference call.
“If you think this election cycle is crazy, you haven’t seen nothing yet!” Gundlach said, referring to a fiscal crisis tied to entitlement programs and other government commitments.
Gasoline on a House Fire
