For the second Monday in 2016, stocks weakened considerably, with the three major indexes down between about 0.30% and 1% in afternoon trading. While many market watchers point the finger at China, one says that scapegoating is way off base.
“The analysts and the strategists and the economists who got it all wrong about the U.S. now blame China for the market decline, when in fact most stocks began to decline in November 2014,” said Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, speaking to Yahoo Finance early Monday. “And [the S&P] peaked out in May 2015 at [about] 2,134.”
The so-called experts, Faber explains, “kept on being bullish about how great the U.S. economy was doing … even when housing stocks went down, auto stocks went down …They kept the bullish view that the U.S. was above everyone else. Now, they blame China.”
Rather than focus on positive economic signals, the portfolio specialist — who spoke to Yahoo Finance from Thailand — said, “I look at stock performance. Most homebuilders are down more than 20% [or] 30%. Why is GM down more than 20%? Why are most stocks on the New York Stock Exchange down more than 20%? They are down more than 20% because the earnings outlook is poor, and because the economic expansion in the U.S. has slowed down meaningfully.”
These figures should be driving portfolio expectations, he adds. “At the present time, I’d be surprised if there is any growth at all in the U.S.”
Also on Monday, Bank of America highlighted a bearish indicator: weakening demand for rail transit.
“We believe rail data may be signaling a warning for the broader economy,” a Bank of America research team explained in a note. “Carloads have declined more than 5% in each of the past 11 weeks on a year-over-year basis.”
Though one-off volume declines appear from time to time, “The current period of substantial and sustained weakness, including last week’s 10.1% decline, has not occurred since 2009,” the bank stated.
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