(Bloomberg Politics) — If Republicans get their way at the Supreme Court this month and wipe out Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) are premium subsidies for millions of Americans, the party could run into problems in swing states in 2016.
A state-by-state analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation found that about 6.4 million Americans in 34 states that use the federal marketplace would lose a total of $1.7 trillion monthly tax credit dollars—an average of $272 per person—and face a net premium increase of 287 percent.
The effects would be particularly perilous in swing states, according to the Kaiser report.
In battleground Florida—home of presidential candidate Sen. Marco Rubio and likely candidate Jeb Bush, as well as an open Senate seat in 2016—1.3 million residents would lose an average of $294 per month in health insurance tax credits and face a remarkable 359 percent premium hike.
See also: The PPACA Florida puzzle
In Wisconsin—home of Gov. Scott Walker, a probable presidential candidate, and politically vulnerable Sen. Ron Johnson—166,000 residents would lose an average of $315 in monthly tax credits and face a 252 percent premium increase.
See also: Republican plan for PPACA subsidies won’t prevent ‘massive disruption,’ report concludes
In Ohio, a critical presidential swing state and one where Sen. Rob Portman faces reelection, 161,000 people would lose a monthly average of $255 in premium tax credits and face a 190 percent premium hike.
In Iowa, a closely-watched state as the first presidential nominating contest, some 34,000 people would lose $263 in monthly tax credits and face a 244 percent premium hike.
See also: Iowa Republicans: PPACA and terrorism sizzle while social issues still matter
In New Hampshire, another early primary state where Senator Kelly Ayotte is up for reelection, about 30,000 would lose a monthly average of $264 in tax credits and soak up a 218 percent premium hike.
See also: 10 PPACA exchanges with upmarket appeal