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December 17, 2014 at 09:53 AM
While frontier markets may be a small, often inaccessible segment of the global investment universe, the asset class has been gaining traction among investors recently.
“Frontier markets, by definition, are at the far edge of the investment universe and are generally not included in global equity indexes or even in many emerging-markets equity funds,” writes Patricia Oey, a senior analyst covering passive strategies on Morningstar’s manager research team, in a new research paper.
Morningstar released a research paper on Wednesday, “Frontier Markets Begin To Emerge,” that delves into investing in frontier markets and the associated risks.
One of the main reasons frontier-markets equities, which Oey calls “a very tiny and relatively inaccessible asset class,” are gaining interest among certain investors is their outperformance versus emerging markets over the two years through October 2014. Oey attributes this to frontier markets’ “rosier growth outlook” relative to emerging markets.
As China, Brazil and Russia have begun to slow, Oey says many frontier-markets economies are entering a period of mid- to high-single-digit growth. Much of this growth is due to a very low economic base, favorable demographics, growth in infrastructure spending and abundant natural resources.
“And relative to emerging markets,” Oey writes, “certain frontier countries will benefit from the rapid adoption and dissemination of ‘new economy’ services such as mobile banking and mobile payments, which should contribute to growth in the medium term.”
Oey doesn’t deny that frontier markets are risky, citing political instability, social unrest, corruption, disease, terrorism, underdeveloped financial systems and capital markets, and a fickle regulatory environment all as potential risks.
“Investors mulling the merits of this investment frontier should take a closer look before jumping in: The underlying risks and performance drivers are quite different from those in emerging and developed equity markets,” writes Oey.
While the risks in frontier markets are quite similar to those in emerging markets, the probability and potential magnitude of the risks associated with frontier markets are much greater. During the 2008 crisis, frontier markets experienced the largest drawdown. According to Morningstar, the MSCI Frontier Markets Index had the largest maximum drawdown relative to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the MSCI EAFE Index, an index comprising developed Asia and Europe equity markets.
“During periods of extreme market stress, frontier markets’ relatively illiquid stock markets can suffer sharp declines in the face of heavy selling,” states Oey in the paper.
While frontier markets, which tend to have a small number of liquid securities and restrictions on foreign ownership, can offer the potential for higher returns and greater diversification benefits in the medium term, Oey says, “investors should carefully evaluate their options.”
“Investors with an above-average risk tolerance may want to consider adding some frontier exposure within their emerging-markets allocation,” states Oey. “However, the risks to investing in frontier markets are many [and] most funds are untested, as they have short track records.”
